31% — Will Linda Annis win the 2026 Surrey mayoral election
Kalshi 31% · 3 contracts · $153 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-21 23:35:03 UTC

Why this matters:
This 14% probability reflects Linda Annis's chances of winning Surrey's 2026 mayoral election based on prediction market trading. The forecast places her as a mid-tier candidate behind frontrunners like Brenda Locke (30%) but ahead of several others. Current market assessment suggests she faces structural challenges in the race, though the outcome remains genuinely uncertain. Trading volume on Annis contracts has been minimal, indicating limited conviction among traders. The race will be resolved on election day in October 2026, when Surrey residents vote. Market prices could shift significantly if new polling emerges, campaign developments occur, or if endorsements and fundraising data become public. The relatively modest probability assigned to Annis compared to Locke suggests market participants currently view her as unlikely to secure the mayoralty, though prediction markets are not certainty and outcomes routinely diverge from stated probabilities.

Key factors:
- Brenda Locke holds a 2.1x higher probability (30%) than Linda Annis (14%), indicating market consensus favors Locke as the frontrunner candidate
- Linda Annis contracts have traded at 31¢ with zero volume in the last 24 hours, suggesting minimal recent market activity or changing sentiment
- The mayor's race is three-candidate focused at the top tier (Locke, Annis, Troy Van Vliet at 3¢), with remaining candidates all single-digit probabilities
- Official polling data, campaign finance reports, and voter surveys have not been referenced in available contract information, leaving the basis for current odds unclear
- The election is scheduled for October 2026, approximately one month away, limiting time for major shifts in candidate positioning or unexpected developments

Contracts:
- Will Linda Annis win the 2026 Surrey mayoral election?: Linda Annis — 17¢ Kalshi $153 (weight 100%)
- Will Brenda Locke win the 2026 Surrey mayoral election?: Brenda Locke — 70¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Doug McCallum win the 2026 Surrey mayoral election?: Doug McCallum — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-21T23:20:54.537Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "31% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/surreymayor
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Linda%20Annis%20win%20the%202026%20Surrey%20mayoral%20election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev