6% — Will Kirsten Gillibrand vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE) Kalshi 6% · 10 contracts · $676 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-24 02:16:23 UTC Why this matters: This question asks whether Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York will vote for a comprehensive crypto market structure bill. At 14%, the market suggests this outcome is unlikely but not impossible. Gillibrand has historically been cautious on crypto regulation, generally aligning with consumer protection concerns over industry expansion. Her vote would depend on the specific bill's provisions—particularly how it balances regulatory clarity with consumer safeguards. The probability could shift significantly based on the final bill text and floor vote timeline in Congress. Comparable senators show mixed support: Mike Lee at 20% suggests some Republican openness, while Mark Warner at 3% reflects skepticism from finance-minded Democrats. The key catalyst is whether a final bill reaches floor consideration in the Senate and its detailed language on custody, consumer protection, and spot market frameworks. Key factors: - Gillibrand's past voting record shows skepticism toward crypto deregulation and preference for consumer protection frameworks over industry-friendly provisions - The specific bill language on consumer safeguards, custody rules, and spot market access would directly influence her decision calculus - Comparable Democratic senators like Mark Warner (3%) show low support, while Republicans like Mike Lee (20%) show higher support, suggesting partisan divides may shape her position - A floor vote requires passage through committee first, meaning bill negotiation and amendment phases remain incomplete variables - The 14% probability implies markets assess her as unlikely to support even a moderate structure bill, suggesting high bar for provisions she would accept Contracts: - Will Josh Hawley vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Josh Hawley — 12¢ Kalshi $610 (weight 90%) - Will Ruben Gallego vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Ruben Gallego — 4¢ Kalshi $56 (weight 8%) - Will Mark Warner vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Mark Warner — 3¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 1%) - Will Angela Alsobrooks vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Angela Alsobrooks — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Catherine Cortez Masto vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Catherine Cortez Masto — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Kirsten Gillibrand vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Kirsten Gillibrand — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Lisa Blunt Rochester vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Lisa Blunt Rochester — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Mike Lee vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Mike Lee — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-24T01:20:51.209Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "6% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/svoteclarity Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Kirsten%20Gillibrand%20vote%20for%20a%20crypto%20market%20structure%20bill%20(as%20defined%20in%20KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE) Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev