58% — Will Kirsten Gillibrand vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE) Kalshi 58% · 12 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-25 17:22:30 UTC Why this matters: This measure tracks the likelihood that Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) will vote yes on a crypto market structure bill as specifically defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE. At 51%, the market implies essentially even odds with slight lean toward support. Gillibrand's vote depends on the bill's specific provisions, particularly how it balances regulatory oversight with industry preferences, and whether it aligns with her broader financial-services positions. Democratic senators show mixed positions on crypto legislation—ranging from strong support (Jerry Moran at 65%) to skepticism (Andy Kim at 10%)—suggesting the bill's text and political context will prove decisive. Key catalysts include the bill's formal introduction in Congress, committee markups that may reveal Gillibrand's stance through statements or amendments, and any public positions she takes on crypto regulation before a floor vote. Key factors: - Gillibrand's historical voting pattern on financial regulation and technology oversight bills - The specific regulatory provisions in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE, particularly around consumer protections versus industry flexibility - Whether the bill receives bipartisan support or emerges as partisan, influencing New York Democratic positioning - Any prior public statements or committee testimony from Gillibrand on cryptocurrency market structure - The timing and political context of a floor vote relative to broader legislative priorities in Congress Contracts: - Will Rand Paul vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Rand Paul — 57¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will Angela Alsobrooks vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Angela Alsobrooks — 67¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will Andy Kim vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Andy Kim — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will Catherine Cortez Masto vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Catherine Cortez Masto — 57¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will Josh Hawley vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Josh Hawley — 72¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will Jerry Moran vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Jerry Moran — 73¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will Kirsten Gillibrand vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Kirsten Gillibrand — 52¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will Lisa Blunt Rochester vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Lisa Blunt Rochester — 62¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - ... and 4 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-25T17:20:50.474Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "58% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/svoteclarity Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Kirsten%20Gillibrand%20vote%20for%20a%20crypto%20market%20structure%20bill%20(as%20defined%20in%20KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE) Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev