22% — Will Green Party finish 4th in the 2026 Swedish general election Kalshi 22% · 4 contracts · $148 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-08 14:19:24 UTC Why this matters: This measures the likelihood that the Green Party will receive the fourth-largest vote share in Sweden's 2026 general election. At 20%, it reflects moderate uncertainty about whether Greens will rank fourth among Sweden's parliamentary parties. The probability is primarily driven by recent polling trends and the competitive middle tier of Swedish politics, where several parties—including Centre, Left, and Christian Democrats—cluster in similar vote ranges. Resolution depends on actual election results scheduled for 2026, when official vote totals will definitively determine each party's ranking. Currently, the Left Party (32¢) and Centre Party (23¢) are favored as more likely fourth-place finishers, suggesting markets view Green Party performance as slightly weaker than these competitors in the current cycle. Key factors: - Recent polling data showing Green Party support levels relative to Centre Party, Left Party, and Christian Democrats - Historical voting patterns in Swedish elections and whether third-place and fifth-place parties have been consolidating or fragmenting - Voter turnout assumptions, as different demographic groups may shift overall party rankings - Campaign dynamics and media coverage between now and election day that could shift support among mid-tier parties - Immigration and climate policy salience in the 2026 campaign, which typically affects Green Party relative performance Contracts: - Will Left Party finish 4th in the 2026 Swedish general election?: Left Party — 33¢ Kalshi $143 (weight 97%) - Will Centre Party finish 4th in the 2026 Swedish general election?: Centre Party — 21¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 3%) - Will Green Party finish 4th in the 2026 Swedish general election?: Green Party — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Christian Democrats finish 4th in the 2026 Swedish general election?: Christian Democrats — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-04T07:20:52.385Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "22% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/sweden4th Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Green%20Party%20finish%204th%20in%20the%202026%20Swedish%20general%20election Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev