40% — Switzerland vs. Canada
Leader: Switzerland at 40% · Polymarket 40% · 3 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:21:15 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 41% probability reflects market participants' assessment that Switzerland has roughly two-to-five odds against Canada in their matchup. The market shows relatively thin liquidity with minimal volume on direct Switzerland-Canada contracts, suggesting limited trading activity and potentially wider uncertainty around the outcome. Key drivers of this probability include each team's recent performance metrics, head-to-head historical records, and current squad composition. The matchup itself will resolve uncertainty when the game is played, with the result determining whether the 41% probability was an accurate reflection of the competitive balance. Related markets show Qatar trading at 10 cents in one Switzerland matchup, indicating broader tournament or competition dynamics may influence how traders value Switzerland's chances overall.

Key factors:
- Direct Switzerland-Canada contract shows 37 cents for a draw outcome, indicating meaningful probability assigned to non-decisive results
- Thin volume on Switzerland-Canada contracts ($0 recorded volume) suggests limited market conviction and potential pricing inefficiency
- Related markets value Switzerland at 75 cents against Qatar but only 10 cents when Qatar faces Switzerland, revealing inconsistent or outdated pricing signals
- The 41% leading position versus 41% runner-up indicates extremely close competitive assessment with minimal statistical separation between top outcomes
- Market structure spans multiple contracts with varying liquidity, making the aggregated 41% dependent on which contract is considered most representative

Contracts:
- Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland — 40¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 33%)
- Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada — 39¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 33%)
- Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw (Switzerland vs. Canada) — 36¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 33%)

Cite as: "40% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/switzerland-vs-canada
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Switzerland%20vs.%20Canada
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev