46% — Will Taiwan People’s Party win the most mayoral and magistrate races in Taiwan’s 2026 local elections
Kalshi 46% · 2 contracts · $596 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-07-14 13:24:57 UTC

Why this matters:
This represents the probability that Taiwan People's Party will capture more mayoral and magistrate seats than the Democratic Progressive Party and Kuomintang in Taiwan's 2026 local elections. The current 33% probability reflects Taiwan People's Party's relatively recent political emergence and mixed performance in previous local contests, compared to the two traditional major parties which have dominated local government historically. Market prices suggest the Kuomintang is favored at 78%, while the Democratic Progressive Party is priced at 17%. The 2026 local elections will be the primary resolution event, currently scheduled for November 2026. Key drivers include Taiwan People's Party's ability to expand its grassroots organization beyond its urban strongholds, voter sentiment on economic and cross-strait policy issues, and whether the party can maintain momentum from recent gains without a national-level election to boost turnout.

Key factors:
- Taiwan People's Party performance in 2022 local elections relative to 2026 projections and recent polling on voter preferences by district
- Geographic distribution of competitive races: whether Taiwan People's Party can win a plurality in rural, suburban, and urban areas simultaneously
- Turnout effects and whether national political events between now and November 2026 favor or disadvantage Taiwan People's Party relative to the Kuomintang and Democratic Progressive Party
- Campaign resource availability and candidate recruitment compared to the two major parties' organizational capacity
- Regional voting patterns and whether Taiwan People's Party maintains support in northern urban areas while gaining traction in traditionally blue or green strongholds

Contracts:
- Will Kuomintang win the most mayoral and magistrate races in Taiwan’s 2026 local elections?: Kuomintang — 80¢ Kalshi $596 (weight 100%)
- Will Democratic Progressive Party win the most mayoral and magistrate races in Taiwan’s 2026 local elections?: Democratic Progressive Party — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-14T13:20:50.112Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "46% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/taiwanlocal
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Taiwan%20People%E2%80%99s%20Party%20win%20the%20most%20mayoral%20and%20magistrate%20races%20in%20Taiwan%E2%80%99s%202026%20local%20elections
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev