87% — What will James Talarico say during 2026 Texas Democratic Convention - Friday General Session Leader: Corrupt / Corruption at 87% · Kalshi 87% · 12 contracts · $32K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-28 05:06:50 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 12 outcomes. Why this matters: This market predicts whether James Talarico, a Texas state representative, will mention a specific topic during his speech at the 2026 Texas Democratic Convention's Friday general session. The 87% probability on the leading outcome suggests traders believe certain statements are highly likely, while the distributed pricing across topics like Trump (23¢), Jesus/God (66¢), and Israel (5¢) reflects uncertainty about which subjects he'll actually address. The market will resolve on June 28, 2026, when the convention occurs and Talarico's remarks either do or do not match the contract specifications. Factors influencing the odds include Talarico's known policy positions and rhetoric patterns, the convention's political context, and whether specific issues become focal points during the event. Trading volume concentration in Trump-related contracts suggests market focus on his likely discussion of prominent political figures. Key factors: - Talarico's documented public statements and typical speaking patterns from previous Democratic events will inform whether certain topics are statistically likely to appear - The specific wording and resolution criteria (exact phrases like 'endorse,' 'Trump,' or 'Iran') create binary outcomes that depend on precise speech content, not general themes - Convention timing (Friday June 28) is fixed, making this a near-term resolution event with limited time for new information to shift probabilities - Trading volume disparities across contracts suggest market participants have differing confidence levels in different outcomes based on available evidence about Talarico's priorities - The leading contract's 87% probability reflects asymmetric trader conviction, not a consensus view, indicating significant minority positions betting on alternative outcomes Contracts: - What will James Talarico say during 2026 Texas Democratic Convention - Friday General Session?: Corrupt / Corruption — 87¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 4%) - What will James Talarico say during 2026 Texas Democratic Convention - Friday General Session?: Billionaire — 71¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 7%) - What will James Talarico say during 2026 Texas Democratic Convention - Friday General Session?: Jesus / God — 66¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 11%) - What will James Talarico say during 2026 Texas Democratic Convention - Friday General Session?: Republican — 62¢ Kalshi $826 (weight 3%) - What will James Talarico say during 2026 Texas Democratic Convention - Friday General Session?: Healthcare — 51¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 7%) - What will James Talarico say during 2026 Texas Democratic Convention - Friday General Session?: Afford / Affordable / Affordability — 46¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 5%) - What will James Talarico say during 2026 Texas Democratic Convention - Friday General Session?: Oil / Gas / Gasoline — 25¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 5%) - What will James Talarico say during 2026 Texas Democratic Convention - Friday General Session?: Trump — 23¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 21%) - ... and 4 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-27T05:20:51.157Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "87% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/talaricomention Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20James%20Talarico%20say%20during%202026%20Texas%20Democratic%20Convention%20-%20Friday%20General%20Session Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev