37% — Who will win the 2026 Tallahassee, Florida mayoral election
Leader: Loranne Ausley at 37% · Kalshi 37% · 3 contracts · $65 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-13 03:31:00 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 18% probability indicates a one-in-five chance that Daryl Parks wins the 2026 Tallahassee mayoral election. The relatively low odds suggest market participants view Parks as a secondary candidate compared to frontrunners. The current probability reflects limited information about candidate strength, endorsements, and fundraising at this early stage. Key drivers would include Parks' campaign infrastructure, name recognition among Tallahassee voters, and the broader field composition—additional candidates entering or exiting the race could shift his odds. The main uncertainty resolver will be the filing deadline and primary results if applicable, which typically occur months before the general election. Early polling data, endorsements from local institutions, and fundraising reports will provide clearer signals about Parks' viability as the election approaches.

Key factors:
- Daryl Parks' fundraising totals and donor base relative to other mayoral candidates
- Primary election results or plurality structure if multiple candidates advance from a primary phase
- Endorsements from major Tallahassee institutions, labor organizations, or current elected officials
- Head-to-head polling between Parks and leading opponents in the general election
- Voter registration and turnout patterns in Tallahassee precincts where Parks has political base or support

Contracts:
- Who will win the 2026 Tallahassee, Florida mayoral election?: Loranne Ausley — 37¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will win the 2026 Tallahassee, Florida mayoral election?: Daryl Parks — 27¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will win the 2026 Tallahassee, Florida mayoral election?: Jeremy Matlow — 20¢ Kalshi $65 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-13T03:20:48.953Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "37% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/tallahasseemayor
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20the%202026%20Tallahassee%2C%20Florida%20mayoral%20election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev