31% — Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30
Polymarket 31% · 1 contracts · $14K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:09:28 UTC

Why this matters:
This prediction reflects a 73% probability that Tamas Sulyok will no longer serve as President of Hungary by June 30, 2026. Sulyok became president in March 2022 as a politically independent figure, but Hungarian presidential politics remains tied to broader power dynamics with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's government. The high probability likely reflects either reported health concerns, political tension, or recent developments suggesting early departure. Key uncertainties include whether Sulyok's stated intent to serve remains firm, whether parliament might initiate removal proceedings, or whether resignation might occur due to personal circumstances. The timeframe allows roughly seven weeks for events to unfold. Market participants appear to weight the possibility of presidential succession substantially, though Hungary's constitutional framework limits the presidency to largely ceremonial duties, making removal less straightforward than in systems with executive power.

Key factors:
- Sulyok's current health status and any recent public statements regarding his fitness to continue in office
- Parliamentary composition and whether any coalition has sufficient votes to initiate impeachment or removal procedures under Hungarian law
- Timeline for Hungary's next scheduled elections or government transitions that could trigger leadership changes
- Any formal statements from Sulyok's office or the government regarding his continued tenure through June 2026
- Volume and movement of trading activity on the contract, indicating whether new information has recently shifted market expectations

Contracts:
- Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? — 31¢ Polymarket $14K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T19:20:13.632Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "31% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
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Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev