23% — Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly Election Winner: ADMK
Polymarket 23% · 7 contracts · $49K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 19:30:59 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability indicates a 22% chance that the ADMK (All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam) will win the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election. The current assessment reflects ADMK's status as the primary opposition to the ruling DMK coalition, though the party faces headwinds from incumbent advantage and recent electoral performance. Key drivers of this probability include ADMK's ground organization, alliance strategies, and voter consolidation efforts against the currently governing coalition. The election outcome will ultimately depend on voter turnout, caste-based voting patterns, and whether ADMK can effectively mobilize its traditional voter base across the state's districts. The resolution of this market will occur on the official election date when results are declared by the Tamil Nadu Electoral Commission.

Key factors:
- ADMK's performance in recent local body elections and bye-elections relative to DMK's
- Composition and stability of pre-poll alliances, particularly ADMK's tie-ups with smaller regional parties
- Regional faction strength within ADMK leadership and candidate selection outcomes
- Voter turnout and participation rates across urban, rural, and semi-urban constituencies
- DMK's incumbent government approval ratings and delivery on key campaign promises

Contracts:
- Presidential Election Winner 2028: Marco Rubio — 16¢ Polymarket $14K (weight 29%)
- Presidential Election Winner 2028: JD Vance — 17¢ Polymarket $14K (weight 28%)
- Presidential Election Winner 2028: Gavin Newsom — 16¢ Polymarket $9K (weight 19%)
- Presidential Election Winner 2028: Kamala Harris — 5¢ Polymarket $8K (weight 16%)
- Presidential Election Winner 2028: Tucker Carlson — 3¢ Polymarket $3K (weight 7%)
- Maine Senate Election Winner: Democrat — 64¢ Polymarket $503 (weight 1%)
- Maine Senate Election Winner: Republican — 37¢ Polymarket $94 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-18T05:20:21.689Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "23% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/tamil-nadu-legislative-assembly-election-winner-admk
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Tamil%20Nadu%20Legislative%20Assembly%20Election%20Winner%3A%20ADMK
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev