88% — Will the tariff rate on Canada imports be between 30% and 39.99% on Jul 1, 2026
Leader: Between 10% and 19.99% at 88% · Kalshi 88% · 2 contracts · $6 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 14:22:24 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that Canadian import tariffs will settle in the 30-40% range by July 1, 2026. The 59% probability for the 10-20% bracket (the leading outcome) suggests markets view lower tariff rates as more likely than mid-range ones, with only 13% assigned to rates of 40% or higher. The current level reflects uncertainty about administration trade policy direction and negotiation outcomes with Canada. The key driver is ongoing trade negotiations and any policy announcements between now and late June. Resolution occurs automatically on July 1 when actual tariff rates are published by U.S. trade authorities. Market pricing across related contracts shows traders expect lower tariff bands to be more probable across multiple trading partners, suggesting a baseline assumption of moderation rather than extreme escalation.

Key factors:
- The leading market price of 59% is assigned to 10-20% tariffs on Canadian imports, not the 30-40% bracket in this question
- Related contracts show 65-75% market probability for 10-20% tariffs on China, EU, and India imports, indicating broad expectation of lower-range outcomes
- Tariff rates will be determined by official U.S. government action and published on or before July 1, 2026—no discretion or ambiguity in resolution
- Only $492-$241 in 24-hour volume on similar EU and China contracts suggests relatively thin market liquidity and potentially volatile repricing
- The 13% probability assigned to tariffs above 40% indicates markets view extreme escalation as unlikely despite historical trade policy volatility

Contracts:
- Will the tariff rate on Canada imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026?: Between 10% and 19.99% — 88¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 100%)
- Will the tariff rate on Canada imports be between 50% and 60% on Jul 1, 2026?: Between 50% and 60% — 54¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T14:20:50.427Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "88% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/tariffratecan
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20tariff%20rate%20on%20Canada%20imports%20be%20between%2030%25%20and%2039.99%25%20on%20Jul%201%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev