82% — Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026
Leader: Between 10% and 19.99% at 82% · Kalshi 82% · 3 contracts · $13 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 09:27:46 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability indicates that markets currently assess a two-in-three chance that U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports will settle between 10% and 19.99% by July 1, 2026. The 64% price for the 10-19.99% band reflects expectations about ongoing trade negotiations and policy decisions. The probability level suggests meaningful uncertainty: markets are pricing in substantial probability for tariff rates outside this range—either lower (under 10%) or higher (20% or above). The main drivers include statements from U.S. trade officials regarding negotiation outcomes, actual tariff announcements or changes between now and early July, and broader trade relationship developments. The critical resolution point is the actual tariff rate announced or confirmed by July 1, 2026. Market participants are weighing recent policy signals against the possibility of significant changes in either direction during the next two months.

Key factors:
- Current effective tariff rates on Chinese imports and recent policy announcements from U.S. trade officials
- Public statements or proposals regarding tariff rate targets from government leadership between May and July 2026
- Any interim tariff changes or negotiations announced before the July 1 measurement date
- Market pricing of the three competing outcomes (below 10%, within 10-19.99%, and 20% or above) based on available information
- Geopolitical developments or trade dispute escalations that could trigger tariff policy shifts in either direction

Contracts:
- Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026?: Between 10% and 19.99% — 82¢ Kalshi $13 (weight 100%)
- Will the tariff rate on China imports be below 10% on Jul 1, 2026?: Below 10% — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 30% and 39.99% on Jul 1, 2026?: Between 30% and 39.99% — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T09:20:07.264Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "82% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/tariffrateprc
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20tariff%20rate%20on%20China%20imports%20be%20between%2010%25%20and%2019.99%25%20on%20Jul%201%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev