90% — Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $200‎ billion
Leader: Above $100‎ billion at 90% · Kalshi 90% · 6 contracts · $25 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:21:58 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The 92% probability reflects market expectations that US tariff revenue in 2026 will exceed $200 billion. This estimate reflects the current tariff policy environment and import volumes. The probability is driven primarily by the existing tariff regime in place and projected trade volumes; it would decline if tariff rates were reduced or imports fell unexpectedly, and would rise if tariffs were increased or enforced more broadly. The resolution hinges on final 2026 US Customs revenue data, typically released by the Treasury Department in early 2027, though preliminary quarterly figures throughout 2026 will provide incremental signals about whether collections are tracking toward the threshold. Current geopolitical tensions and supply-chain dynamics could shift import patterns before year-end.

Key factors:
- Existing US tariff rates as of May 2026 and whether they remain in effect through December without material reductions
- Import volume trends through mid-2026; significant drops in imports would lower total tariff revenue regardless of rate levels
- Cumulative tariff collections reported through Q3 2026; if collections already exceed ~$150 billion by September, the threshold becomes highly probable
- Policy changes such as tariff exemptions, negotiations, or rate adjustments announced between May and December 2026
- Enforcement intensity and duty collection by US Customs; variation in assessment or payment timing can affect annual totals

Contracts:
- Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $100‎ billion?: Above $100‎ billion — 90¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 24%)
- Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $80‎ billion?: Above $80‎ billion — 90¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $125‎ billion?: Above $125‎ billion — 85¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $150‎ billion?: Above $150‎ billion — 73¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $200‎ billion?: Above $200‎ billion — 55¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $250‎ billion?: Above $250‎ billion — 34¢ Kalshi $19 (weight 76%)

Cite as: "90% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/tariffrevenue
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20US%20tariff%20revenue%20for%202026%20be%20above%20%24200%E2%80%8E%20billion
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev