39% — Will Trump issue any executive action on imposing tariffs specifically on Canadian aircraft, where the executive action must explicitly reference Canadian aircraft in its title, operative text, or fact sheet (not merely in an attached tariff schedule annex) during in 2026 Leader: Critical minerals at 39% · Kalshi 39% · 4 contracts · $44 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:42 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes. Why this matters: This market asks whether Trump will issue an executive action on Canadian aircraft tariffs with explicit mention in the title, operative text, or fact sheet by year-end 2026. The 50% probability reflects genuine uncertainty about whether such a narrowly-scoped action will occur. The current level is supported by Trump's documented interest in tariff policy generally—related markets show 81% probability of broader tariff actions in May 2026—but tempered by the specificity requirement. The timing matters because executive actions can be announced rapidly, but the Canadian aircraft constraint is restrictive; similar sector-specific measures may be bundled into broader trade actions instead. Key resolution drivers include Trump's stated trade priorities, ongoing U.S.-Canada trade dynamics, and whether tariff announcements use sufficiently explicit language about aircraft. The uncertainty remains substantial given the combination of Trump's tariff focus and the specific targeting requirement. Key factors: - A related May 2026 tariff action market shows 81% probability, indicating active tariff-policy consideration but not confirming Canadian aircraft specificity - The constraint requiring explicit Canadian aircraft mention in title/text/fact sheet (not just annex schedules) is narrower than typical executive action language, raising the bar for resolution - Trump administration tariff actions historically vary in specificity and targeting—some use broad sectoral language, others name specific countries or products, affecting likelihood of meeting the criteria - No scheduled announcement or deadline before year-end 2026 is publicly identified, making timing unpredictable versus event-driven resolution - Kalshi contracts aggregate 29% average probability across four linked outcomes, suggesting meaningful disagreement or view dispersion among traders on tariff specificity scenarios Contracts: - Will Trump issue any executive action on imposing tariffs specifically on critical minerals, where the executive action must explicitly reference critical minerals in its title, operative text, or fact sheet (not merely in an attached tariff schedule annex) during in 2026?: Critical minerals — 39¢ Kalshi $44 (weight 100%) - Will Trump issue any executive action on imposing tariffs specifically on wind turbines, where the executive action must explicitly reference wind turbines in its title, operative text, or fact sheet (not merely in an attached tariff schedule annex) during in 2026?: Wind turbines — 34¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Trump issue any executive action on imposing tariffs specifically on Canadian aircraft, where the executive action must explicitly reference Canadian aircraft in its title, operative text, or fact sheet (not merely in an attached tariff schedule annex) during in 2026?: Canadian aircraft — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Trump issue any executive action on imposing tariffs specifically on foreign-made films, where the executive action must explicitly reference foreign-made films in its title, operative text, or fact sheet (not merely in an attached tariff schedule annex) during in 2026?: Foreign-made films — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:48.802Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "39% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/tariffsector Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Trump%20issue%20any%20executive%20action%20on%20imposing%20tariffs%20specifically%20on%20Canadian%20aircraft%2C%20where%20the%20executive%20action%20must%20explicitly%20reference%20Canadian%20aircraft%20in%20its%20title%2C%20operative%20text%2C%20or%20fact%20sheet%20(not%20merely%20in%20an%20attached%20tariff%20schedule%20annex)%20during%20in%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev