25% — Will Trump issue any executive action on imposing tariffs specifically on Canadian aircraft, where the executive action must explicitly reference Canadian aircraft in its title, operative text, or fact sheet (not merely in an attached tariff schedule annex) during in 2026 Leader: Wind turbines at 25% · Kalshi 25% · 3 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-23 00:59:19 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes. Why this matters: This market assesses the likelihood that President Trump will issue an executive order explicitly naming Canadian aircraft in tariff-related action during 2026. At 15% on Kalshi, the probability reflects skepticism that aircraft would be singled out by name in tariff policy, despite ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada. The current level suggests markets view broader tariff approaches as more probable than product-specific orders, though trade tensions remain unpredictable. Key drivers include Trump's historical willingness to use executive orders for trade policy, the visibility of Canadian aerospace manufacturing in U.S.-Canada relations, and whether tariff actions focus on named sectors versus general country-based measures. Resolution depends on whether any formal executive actions on tariffs are issued before year-end, and whether they contain explicit references to Canadian aircraft in official documents rather than merely listing HS codes or tariff schedules. Key factors: - No executive action explicitly naming Canadian aircraft has been issued as of September 2026, despite broader U.S.-Canada trade discussions - Trump administration's prior tariff orders varied in specificity—some named products explicitly while others relied on tariff schedules without specific sector language - Canadian aircraft manufacturing, including Bombardier operations, represents a measurable portion of bilateral trade but historically has not been the primary focus of tariff disputes - The threshold requires explicit reference in title, operative text, or fact sheet—not mere attachment in tariff annexes, which narrows what would qualify - Remaining 4 months of 2026 provide the window for action, with no scheduled trade deadline specifically tied to Canadian aircraft as of September Contracts: - Will Trump issue any executive action on imposing tariffs specifically on wind turbines, where the executive action must explicitly reference wind turbines in its title, operative text, or fact sheet (not merely in an attached tariff schedule annex) during in 2026?: Wind turbines — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%) - Will Trump issue any executive action on imposing tariffs specifically on critical minerals, where the executive action must explicitly reference critical minerals in its title, operative text, or fact sheet (not merely in an attached tariff schedule annex) during in 2026?: Critical minerals — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%) - Will Trump issue any executive action on imposing tariffs specifically on Canadian aircraft, where the executive action must explicitly reference Canadian aircraft in its title, operative text, or fact sheet (not merely in an attached tariff schedule annex) during in 2026?: Canadian aircraft — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-23T00:20:51.460Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "25% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/tariffsector Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Trump%20issue%20any%20executive%20action%20on%20imposing%20tariffs%20specifically%20on%20Canadian%20aircraft%2C%20where%20the%20executive%20action%20must%20explicitly%20reference%20Canadian%20aircraft%20in%20its%20title%2C%20operative%20text%2C%20or%20fact%20sheet%20(not%20merely%20in%20an%20attached%20tariff%20schedule%20annex)%20during%20in%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev