13% — Is Taylor Swift pregnant? Kalshi 13% · 8 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-24 04:19:32 UTC Why this matters: This probability estimates the chance that Taylor Swift will be publicly confirmed as pregnant at some point during 2026. The 13% current level reflects limited concrete indicators of pregnancy, as markets aggregate available information about her public appearances, professional commitments, and any statements from Swift or her representatives. The probability could shift upward if reliable reports emerge of pregnancy-related changes, confirmed medical announcements, or indirect confirmations through official channels. Conversely, it would decline if Swift maintains a full public schedule through year-end without any pregnancy announcements. The main catalyst for resolution would be either an official confirmation from Swift's team or a credible public announcement, which could occur at any point during the remainder of 2026 and would definitively settle the question. Key factors: - Official pregnancy announcements or confirmations from Taylor Swift, her representatives, or verified media sources are the only reliable resolution mechanism - Planned professional activities in 2026 (tours, album releases, public appearances) could indirectly signal pregnancy status if cancelled or postponed - Media reports citing unnamed sources lack the specificity needed to move markets and represent background noise rather than actionable signals - The contract volume across related Taylor Swift predictions is extremely low ($0-910 in 24h volume), suggesting limited market confidence in pricing accuracy - Year-end approaches without resolution would require markets to assess whether pregnancy either did not occur or remains undisclosed, creating ambiguity about final outcomes Contracts: - Will Taylor Swift be the #1 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist U.S chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Taylor Swift — 6¢ Kalshi $933 (weight 85%) - Artist with the most monthly Spotify listeners at the end of Aug 2026?: Taylor Swift — 5¢ Kalshi $110 (weight 10%) - Will Taylor Swift be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People?: Taylor Swift — 5¢ Kalshi $47 (weight 4%) - Will Taylor Swift be on the cover of Rolling Stone in 2026?: Taylor Swift — 24¢ Kalshi $12 (weight 1%) - Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2026?: Taylor Swift — 37¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Taylor Swift be #1 on the IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of the Year in 2026?: Taylor Swift — 18¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Taylor Swift be the #2 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People?: Taylor Swift — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Taylor Swift be Time Person of the Year in 2026?: Taylor Swift — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-24T03:20:49.510Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/taylor-swift-pregnant Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Is%20Taylor%20Swift%20pregnant%3F Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev