34% — Will Danielle Haim be a Bridesmaid for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift
Kalshi 34% · 17 contracts · $121 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 05:08:58 UTC

Why this matters:
This represents the market's assessment that Danielle Haim will be included in Taylor Swift's wedding party if she marries Travis Kelce. At 34%, the probability reflects moderate uncertainty about whether this specific friendship would result in a bridesmaid role. The current level appears influenced by Swift's well-documented close friendships and her history of involving members of her inner circle in major life events, weighed against the large number of potential candidates for bridesmaid positions. The main uncertainty driver is whether a Travis Kelce-Taylor Swift wedding occurs at all, followed by which friends Swift would select if it does. Resolution will depend on either an official wedding announcement and guest list disclosure, or sufficient time passing to make the event unlikely.

Key factors:
- Danielle Haim's documented friendship history with Taylor Swift and prior appearances at major life events
- The total number of candidates competing for bridesmaid positions versus available slots
- Public statements or social media activity indicating closeness between Swift and Haim in 2025-2026
- Whether Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift maintain their relationship or announce an engagement
- Market probability of a Taylor Swift-Travis Kelce wedding occurring, which appears to be a precondition for this outcome

Contracts:
- Will Cara Delevingne be a Bridesmaid for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift?: Cara Delevingne — 17¢ Kalshi $41 (weight 34%)
- Will Gigi Hadid be a Bridesmaid for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift?: Gigi Hadid — 57¢ Kalshi $22 (weight 18%)
- Will Abigail Anderson (Berard) be a Bridesmaid for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift?: Abigail Anderson (Berard) — 64¢ Kalshi $15 (weight 13%)
- Will Este Haim be a Bridesmaid for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift?: Este Haim — 59¢ Kalshi $13 (weight 11%)
- Will Zoë Kravitz be a Bridesmaid for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift?: Zoë Kravitz — 48¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 9%)
- Will Selena Gomez be a Bridesmaid for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift?: Selena Gomez — 67¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 6%)
- Will Kylie Kelce be a Bridesmaid for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift?: Kylie Kelce — 64¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 5%)
- Will Danielle Haim be a Bridesmaid for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift?: Danielle Haim — 19¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 4%)
- ... and 9 more

Cite as: "34% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/taylorswiftwedding
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Danielle%20Haim%20be%20a%20Bridesmaid%20for%20the%20wedding%20of%20Travis%20Kelce%20and%20Taylor%20Swift
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev