33% — Will Danielle Haim be a Bridesmaid for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift Kalshi 33% · 16 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 09:42:58 UTC Why this matters: This represents the market's assessment that Danielle Haim will be included in Taylor Swift's wedding party if she marries Travis Kelce. At 34%, the probability reflects moderate uncertainty about whether this specific friendship would result in a bridesmaid role. The current level appears influenced by Swift's well-documented close friendships and her history of involving members of her inner circle in major life events, weighed against the large number of potential candidates for bridesmaid positions. The main uncertainty driver is whether a Travis Kelce-Taylor Swift wedding occurs at all, followed by which friends Swift would select if it does. Resolution will depend on either an official wedding announcement and guest list disclosure, or sufficient time passing to make the event unlikely. Key factors: - Danielle Haim's documented friendship history with Taylor Swift and prior appearances at major life events - The total number of candidates competing for bridesmaid positions versus available slots - Public statements or social media activity indicating closeness between Swift and Haim in 2025-2026 - Whether Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift maintain their relationship or announce an engagement - Market probability of a Taylor Swift-Travis Kelce wedding occurring, which appears to be a precondition for this outcome Contracts: - Will Blake Lively be a Bridesmaid for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift?: Blake Lively — 4¢ Kalshi $898 (weight 31%) - Will Gigi Hadid be a Bridesmaid for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift?: Gigi Hadid — 51¢ Kalshi $335 (weight 11%) - Will Cara Delevingne be a Bridesmaid for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift?: Cara Delevingne — 13¢ Kalshi $311 (weight 11%) - Will Abigail Anderson (Berard) be a Bridesmaid for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift?: Abigail Anderson (Berard) — 85¢ Kalshi $298 (weight 10%) - Will Brittany Mahomes be a Bridesmaid for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift?: Brittany Mahomes — 4¢ Kalshi $193 (weight 7%) - Will Alana Haim be a Bridesmaid for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift?: Alana Haim — 38¢ Kalshi $188 (weight 6%) - Will Kylie Kelce be a Bridesmaid for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift?: Kylie Kelce — 58¢ Kalshi $186 (weight 6%) - Will Zoë Kravitz be a Bridesmaid for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift?: Zoë Kravitz — 20¢ Kalshi $128 (weight 4%) - ... and 8 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:50.491Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "33% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/taylorswiftwedding Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Danielle%20Haim%20be%20a%20Bridesmaid%20for%20the%20wedding%20of%20Travis%20Kelce%20and%20Taylor%20Swift Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev