90% — Will the average U.S. price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme for July 2026 be at least $6.69
Leader: At least $6.65 at 90% · Kalshi 90% · 8 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-13 03:30:31 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract estimates an 88% probability that the Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme will average at least $6.65 across U.S. locations during July 2026. The high probability reflects ongoing menu price inflation, though the specific threshold remains uncertain given regional pricing variations and Taco Bell's promotional strategies. Contract prices decline sharply at higher price points ($6.69, $6.72), suggesting meaningful disagreement about whether prices will reach those levels. The resolution depends on Taco Bell publishing or markets obtaining verified average pricing data for July 2026. Historical menu price increases, franchise-level variation, and any mid-month promotional discounting would all influence the final outcome. The current gap between the $6.65 and $6.69 contracts (89¢ vs. 43¢) indicates traders see roughly a 46% chance of exceeding $6.69 specifically.

Key factors:
- Taco Bell's historical price trajectory: the item has risen from approximately $5.50 in early 2024 to current estimates near $6.65, representing roughly 6% annual inflation
- Regional pricing variation: franchise-level control and local market competition create significant price dispersion across U.S. locations that affects national averages
- Promotional activity timing: if Taco Bell runs major discounts or value menu bundling during July 2026, it could suppress the monthly average below higher thresholds
- Data source and methodology: resolution requires verified pricing data; different sources (QSR tracking, Taco Bell internal data, third-party surveys) may produce conflicting averages
- Competitive pricing pressure: fast-casual competitors' pricing moves and consumer sensitivity to menu price increases could influence Taco Bell's pricing decisions

Contracts:
- Will the average U.S. price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme for July 2026 be at least $6.65?: At least $6.65 — 90¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 1%)
- Will the average U.S. price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme for July 2026 be at least $6.66?: At least $6.66 — 76¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the average U.S. price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme for July 2026 be at least $6.67?: At least $6.67 — 66¢ Kalshi $15 (weight 1%)
- Will the average U.S. price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme for July 2026 be at least $6.68?: At least $6.68 — 60¢ Kalshi $253 (weight 20%)
- Will the average U.S. price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme for July 2026 be at least $6.69?: At least $6.69 — 45¢ Kalshi $513 (weight 41%)
- Will the average U.S. price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme for July 2026 be at least $6.70?: At least $6.70 — 27¢ Kalshi $22 (weight 2%)
- Will the average U.S. price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme for July 2026 be at least $6.71?: At least $6.71 — 14¢ Kalshi $38 (weight 3%)
- Will the average U.S. price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme for July 2026 be at least $6.72?: At least $6.72 — 7¢ Kalshi $414 (weight 33%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-13T03:20:50.599Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "90% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/tbcrunchwrap
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20average%20U.S.%20price%20of%20a%20Taco%20Bell%20Crunchwrap%20Supreme%20for%20July%202026%20be%20at%20least%20%246.69
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev