64% — Tennessee Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Leader: Marquita Bradshaw at 64% · Polymarket 64% · 3 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 09:55:32 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market participants' assessment that Marquita Bradshaw will win the Tennessee Democratic Senate primary, with a 72% implied likelihood based on aggregated prediction markets. The leading position likely reflects her visibility and fundraising relative to the runner-up candidate at 14%. Movement in this probability would depend on campaign developments, donor momentum, earned media, and polling data if available. The primary election date will definitively resolve this market; until then, changes in candidate viability signals—endorsements, cash-on-hand reports, debate performance, or local media coverage—would be the primary drivers of probability shifts.

Key factors:
- Marquita Bradshaw's current 72% price versus the runner-up's 14% suggests a meaningful but not overwhelming market confidence in her nomination path
- Market volume and pricing reflect real-money bets; the relative prices of four distinct contracts indicate differentiation among candidates rather than consensus certainty
- Tennessee's Democratic primary rules, voter registration numbers, and candidate filing deadlines establish hard constraints on who can compete and when the race concludes
- Public polling, FEC filings showing cash available, and endorsements from established Tennessee Democratic figures would provide testable signals of candidate momentum
- The gap between the leader (72%) and runner-up (14%) leaves room for a consolidation or surprise, suggesting the outcome remains contingent on primary-season events

Contracts:
- Tennessee Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Marquita Bradshaw — 64¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 33%)
- Tennessee Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Maria Brewer — 26¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 33%)
- Tennessee Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Diana Onyeijaka — 7¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 33%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "64% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/tennessee-democratic-senate-primary-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Tennessee%20Democratic%20Senate%20Primary%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev