25% — Tennessee Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Polymarket 22% · 5 contracts · $195 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-03 15:17:38 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market participants' assessment that Marquita Bradshaw will win the Tennessee Democratic Senate primary, with a 72% implied likelihood based on aggregated prediction markets. The leading position likely reflects her visibility and fundraising relative to the runner-up candidate at 14%. Movement in this probability would depend on campaign developments, donor momentum, earned media, and polling data if available. The primary election date will definitively resolve this market; until then, changes in candidate viability signals—endorsements, cash-on-hand reports, debate performance, or local media coverage—would be the primary drivers of probability shifts.

Key factors:
- Marquita Bradshaw's current 72% price versus the runner-up's 14% suggests a meaningful but not overwhelming market confidence in her nomination path
- Market volume and pricing reflect real-money bets; the relative prices of four distinct contracts indicate differentiation among candidates rather than consensus certainty
- Tennessee's Democratic primary rules, voter registration numbers, and candidate filing deadlines establish hard constraints on who can compete and when the race concludes
- Public polling, FEC filings showing cash available, and endorsements from established Tennessee Democratic figures would provide testable signals of candidate momentum
- The gap between the leader (72%) and runner-up (14%) leaves room for a consolidation or surprise, suggesting the outcome remains contingent on primary-season events

Contracts:
- Tennessee Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Marquita Bradshaw — 73¢ Polymarket $75 (weight 24%)
- Tennessee Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Maria Brewer — 12¢ Polymarket $30 (weight 19%)
- Tennessee Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Kevin Lee McCants — 7¢ Polymarket $30 (weight 19%)
- Tennessee Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Diana Onyeijaka — 14¢ Polymarket $30 (weight 19%)
- Tennessee Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Civil Miller-Watkins — 5¢ Polymarket $30 (weight 19%)

Cite as: "25% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/tennessee-democratic-senate-primary-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Tennessee%20Democratic%20Senate%20Primary%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev