32% — Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30
Polymarket 8% · Kalshi 28% · 18 contracts · $1K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-03 14:09:02 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 20pp (Kalshi higher)

Contracts:
- Will Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship?: Before 2030 — 64¢ Kalshi $406 (weight 17%)
- Will SpaceX land anything on Mars before 2030?: Before 2030 — 29¢ Kalshi $303 (weight 16%)
- Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Apr 1, 2027?: Before Apr 1, 2027 — 27¢ Kalshi $288 (weight 16%)
- Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before May 1, 2027?: Before May 1, 2027 — 33¢ Kalshi $125 (weight 13%)
- Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Mar 1, 2027?: Before Mar 1, 2027 — 17¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 13%)
- Will a new main Fast & Furious film be officially announced in 2026?: Before 2027 — 28¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 3%)
- Will Elon Musk or Tesla or SpaceX take a stake in Ryanair before Jan 1, 2027?: Yes — 7¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 2%)
- Glencore and Rio Tinto sale/merger announced by June 30? — 12¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 2%)
- ... and 10 more

Cite as: "32% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/tesla-and-spacex-merger-officially-announced-june-30
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Tesla%20and%20SpaceX%20merger%20officially%20announced%20by%20June%2030
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev