67% — Texas Attorney General Republican Primary Runoff Winner
Leader: Mayes Middleton at 67% · Polymarket 67% · 2 contracts · $1K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 08:46:19 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability indicates that the leading candidate in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary runoff has a 50% chance of winning according to prediction market participants. The race remains highly competitive, with the runner-up polling at 42%, suggesting substantial uncertainty about the final outcome. Market pricing reflects divided opinion on whether the frontrunner can secure victory in a two-candidate matchup. The runoff will be decided by Texas Republican voters on the scheduled election date, with the winner determined by total vote count. Key factors influencing this probability include recent polling trends, candidate fundraising and turnout operations, regional support patterns, and the margin-of-victory contracts suggesting traders expect a relatively close result rather than a decisive victory. The resolution depends entirely on actual voter behavior in the runoff election.

Key factors:
- Margin-of-victory contract pricing (16-23¢ for tight 0-9% margins) indicates traders expect a competitive race rather than a blowout, constraining the leader's probability below 70%
- Runner-up candidate remains at 42% probability, reflecting measurable support and suggesting neither candidate has achieved decisive dominance in current assessments
- Turnout expectations matter significantly: the 1.8M vote threshold contract at 7¢ suggests uncertainty about whether turnout will meet historical levels, affecting both candidates differently
- Recent polling data and endorsement patterns would be concrete inputs voters are weighing to assign 50% vs 42% rather than closer probabilities
- The timing of any major campaign developments, debate performance, or late-breaking news between now and election day could materially shift the 8-point gap between leader and runner-up

Contracts:
- Texas Attorney General Republican Primary Runoff Winner: Mayes Middleton — 67¢ Polymarket $752 (weight 62%)
- Texas Attorney General Republican Primary Runoff Winner: Chip Roy — 13¢ Polymarket $452 (weight 38%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T07:20:12.845Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "67% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/texas-attorney-general-republican-primary-runoff-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Texas%20Attorney%20General%20Republican%20Primary%20Runoff%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev