85% — Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory
Leader: Paxton 9%+ at 85% · Polymarket 85% · 5 contracts · $15K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-15 20:58:56 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 26% probability reflects market expectations that Ken Paxton will win the Texas Republican Senate runoff by a margin between 15% and 20%. The current price distribution suggests traders are uncertain about the final margin, with meaningful probability mass across multiple outcome buckets from 0-5% up to 20%+. The key drivers of this assessment are Paxton's performance and name recognition in the general Republican primary electorate, his opponent's relative strength in key geographic regions, and turnout patterns in runoff elections which typically differ from primary contests. The runoff election itself will resolve this market completely, determining the actual margin of victory and validating or contradicting current market expectations about whether the race will be competitive or decisive.

Key factors:
- Turnout composition in runoff elections historically differs from first-round primaries, affecting which candidate's base mobilizes most effectively
- Paxton's statewide office experience and incumbent advantage versus opponent's regional or organizational strengths in specific Texas counties
- Early voting and absentee ballot participation rates, which may shift the electorate composition compared to election day voters
- Post-primary polling showing Paxton's standing relative to runoff opponent among registered Republican voters
- Geographic distribution of remaining candidate support, particularly performance differences in major metropolitan areas versus rural Texas counties

Contracts:
- Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory: Paxton 9%+ — 85¢ Polymarket $9K (weight 64%)
- Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory: Paxton 6–9% — 4¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 12%)
- Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory: Cornyn <3% — 4¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 10%)
- Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory: Paxton 3–6% — 4¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 7%)
- Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory: Paxton <3% — 3¢ Polymarket $826 (weight 6%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-14T07:20:50.569Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "85% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/texas-senate-republican-primary-runoff-margin-of-victory
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Texas%20Senate%20Republican%20Primary%20Runoff%20Margin%20of%20Victory
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev