88% — Will 3 mg THC beverages qualify as hemp under federal law on Dec 10, 2026
Leader: On Nov 13, 2026 at 88% · Kalshi 88% · 3 contracts · $144 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-25 07:08:35 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates the likelihood that 3 mg THC beverages will be classified as hemp under federal law by December 10, 2026. Current probability across contracts ranges from 33–42%, with earlier resolution dates trading lower than later ones, suggesting uncertainty about timing. The outcome depends on how federal regulators interpret existing hemp definitions, particularly the 2018 Farm Bill's 0.3% THC threshold by dry weight, and whether beverages by volume could meet that standard. Key upcoming regulatory actions—including potential guidance from the DEA or FDA, congressional activity, or state-federal coordination on hemp standards—could substantially shift expectations. The November 2026 contracts trade at 36%, indicating traders view a resolution within months as less likely than one pushed into 2027.

Key factors:
- The 2018 Farm Bill's 0.3% THC dry-weight standard does not explicitly address liquid products, leaving regulatory interpretation open
- Earlier resolution dates (November 2026) trade 6–9 cents lower than later dates (November 2027), reflecting market skepticism about near-term federal clarification
- No major FDA or DEA guidance specifically addressing THC beverage classification has been published or scheduled publicly as of August 2026
- Trading volume concentrates on the November 2026 contract ($639 24h), suggesting the most active expectation is an answer within 3 months
- The 42% probability for the latest date indicates markets assign meaningful probability to hemp-compliant THC beverages, but treat it as less likely than regulatory rejection or continued ambiguity

Contracts:
- Will 3 mg THC beverages qualify as hemp under federal law on Nov 13, 2026?: On Nov 13, 2026 — 88¢ Kalshi $141 (weight 98%)
- Will 3 mg THC beverages qualify as hemp under federal law on Dec 10, 2026?: On Dec 10, 2026 — 80¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 2%)
- Will 3 mg THC beverages qualify as hemp under federal law on Mar 13, 2027?: On Mar 13, 2027 — 62¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-25T06:20:49.127Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "88% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/thc3mg-fed
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%203%20mg%20THC%20beverages%20qualify%20as%20hemp%20under%20federal%20law%20on%20Dec%2010%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev