36% — Will TikTok be banned in the US?
Kalshi 23% · Polymarket 41% · 7 contracts · $3 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 06:12:03 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 18pp (Polymarket higher)

Why this matters:
Prediction markets currently assign near-zero probability to any major tech company acquiring TikTok. While the U.S. government has pursued divestiture efforts, market participants essentially see no likelihood that Microsoft, Meta, Elon Musk, or Walmart will purchase the platform.

Key factors:
- No buyer interest from major tech firms
- Near-zero market implied acquisition probability
- Ongoing U.S. regulatory scrutiny
- Broad geopolitical and antitrust headwinds

Contracts:
- Which companies will the US take a stake in?: Nvidia — 18¢ Polymarket $3 (weight 100%)
- Will the ban on supersonic flight over land end before 2028?: Before 2028 — 43¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- US bans social media for children before 2027?: Yes — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Which companies will the US take a stake in?: TikTok US / Bytedance — 33¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which companies will the US take a stake in?: Anduril — 56¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which companies will the US take a stake in?: Rigetti — 81¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Which companies will the US take a stake in?: Samsung Electronics — 19¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:11.670Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "36% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/tiktok-ban
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20TikTok%20be%20banned%20in%20the%20US%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev