11% — Will Tim Walz resign by...
Polymarket 11% · 1 contracts · $279 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:21:49 UTC

Why this matters:
This prediction estimates a 12% chance that Minnesota Governor Tim Walz will resign before a specified date. Walz assumed the vice presidency under President Biden in 2025, creating a potential conflict with his gubernatorial duties. The low probability reflects the rarity of sitting governors resigning from office and the absence of public signals suggesting imminent departure. The main factors determining this outcome would be either unprecedented political circumstances forcing his hand or unforeseen personal or health-related circumstances. The resolution depends on whether Walz formally vacates the governorship before the deadline, which would likely be announced publicly by state officials.

Key factors:
- Walz has maintained dual roles as VP and governor since 2025 without publicly indicating plans to resign
- No sitting US vice president has resigned from a governorship in modern political history
- Minnesota's succession rules and lieutenant governor structure would activate automatically upon resignation
- Any resignation would require formal notice to state authorities and would be immediately verifiable through official state records
- Unexpected personal circumstances, legal issues, or major political shifts could alter the baseline expectation

Contracts:
- Will Tim Walz resign by...?: Before 2027 — 11¢ Polymarket $279 (weight 100%)

Cite as: "11% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/tim-walz-resign
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Tim%20Walz%20resign%20by...
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev