35% — Who will Time name as Person of the Decade Leader: Volodymyr Zelenskyy at 35% · Kalshi 35% · 6 contracts · $8 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 06:46:26 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes. Why this matters: This 30% probability reflects market participants' assessment that an AI-related entity or concept will be selected as Time's Person of the Decade when the magazine makes this selection (likely in late 2029 or early 2030). The probability is being driven primarily by AI's rapid advancement and cultural prominence in 2024-2026, though the specific designation remains uncertain. A runner-up outcome sits at 13%, indicating significant fragmentation across alternative outcomes. The main factors depressing the full probability are uncertainty about whether Time will choose a person, organization, or concept; the unpredictable editorial preferences of Time's selection committee; and competition from major political figures and other potential contenders. Resolution will occur when Time officially announces its Person of the Decade selection, likely at year-end 2029 or in early 2030, at which point the market will settle definitively. Key factors: - The leading outcome prices AI at 30¢, while the runner-up is at 13¢, indicating significant market uncertainty and a fragmented field of potential winners - Donald Trump trades at 26¢, making him the second-highest individual person within this market, suggesting political figures remain credible contenders - The five most liquid contracts (AI, Trump, Zohran Mamdani, Pope Leo XIV, and others) collectively represent a minority of the probability space, with remaining outcomes distributed across other unspecified candidates - Time's selection criteria and editorial judgment are not mechanically determined by any public metric, creating irreducible uncertainty for all participants - Resolution is approximately 3-4 years away, allowing substantial shifts in global circumstances that could favor different outcome categories Contracts: - Who will Time name as Person of the Decade?: Volodymyr Zelenskyy — 35¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 13%) - Who will Time name as Person of the Decade?: Elon Musk — 32¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 13%) - Who will Time name as Person of the Decade?: Taylor Swift — 18¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 13%) - Who will Time name as Person of the Decade?: Sam Altman — 8¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 63%) - Who will Time name as Person of the Decade?: Xi Jinping — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Who will Time name as Person of the Decade?: Jensen Huang — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:20:50.669Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "35% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/timedecade20s Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20Time%20name%20as%20Person%20of%20the%20Decade Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev