41% — TN-09 Democratic Primary Winner
Leader: Steve Cohen at 41% · Polymarket 41% · 3 contracts · $78 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 05:08:53 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market estimates of the likelihood that a specific candidate wins the Tennessee 9th District Democratic primary. The 50% price for the leading candidate indicates meaningful uncertainty about the outcome, with the runner-up at 46% suggesting a competitive race. Primary winners depend on candidate fundraising, voter turnout patterns in the district, endorsement dynamics, and polling accuracy in the weeks leading to the election. The primary election date itself represents the key catalyst that will resolve this market, after which actual vote totals replace speculation. Market participants are pricing in the possibility of a narrow outcome or potential surprises given the close polling between frontrunners.

Key factors:
- Relative fundraising totals and cash-on-hand for leading candidates in the district as of FEC reporting deadlines
- Recent district-specific polling or internal campaign surveys showing vote share trends within 4-6 weeks of primary day
- Endorsement patterns from local party officials, union leaders, or other organizational validators that may influence late-decider voters
- Voter turnout projections by demographic group, since Democratic primary outcomes can shift significantly with varying turnout assumptions
- Historical accuracy of previous predictions for this district's Democratic primary electorate composition

Contracts:
- TN-09 Democratic Primary Winner: Steve Cohen — 41¢ Polymarket $24 (weight 31%)
- TN-09 Democratic Primary Winner: Justin Pearson — 38¢ Polymarket $39 (weight 50%)
- TN-09 Democratic Primary Winner: DeVante Hill — 35¢ Polymarket $15 (weight 19%)

Cite as: "41% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/tn09-democratic-primary-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=TN-09%20Democratic%20Primary%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev