21% — Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be between 4.20 and 4.22 on Apr 21, 2026
Leader: 4.28% to 4.3% at 21% · Kalshi 21% · 3 contracts · $3 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:21:01 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be between 4.28 and 4.30 on May 7, 2026?: 4.28% to 4.3% — 21¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 33%)
- Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be below 4.25 on May 7, 2026?: 4.24% or below — 11¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 33%)
- Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be between 4.25 and 4.27 on May 7, 2026?: 4.25% to 4.27% — 6¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 33%)

Cite as: "21% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/tnoted
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20yield%20of%2010-year%20U.S.%20treasury%20notes%20be%20between%204.20%20and%204.22%20on%20Apr%2021%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev