61% — Will Van Hilleary be the Republican nominee for TN-06
Kalshi 61% · 11 contracts · $189 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:44:02 UTC

Why this matters:
This contract represents the likelihood that Van Hilleary will secure the Republican nomination for Tennessee's 6th congressional district. At 27%, the market is pricing Hilleary as a significant contender but not the front-runner, suggesting meaningful uncertainty about the primary outcome. The nomination probability reflects factors such as candidate name recognition, fundraising capacity, endorsement patterns, and primary field strength. The market's assessment would likely shift based on polling data from the district, campaign finance reports showing spending and donor support, and any major endorsements or candidate exits that reshape the competitive landscape. The primary election date and any preceding debates or campaign events would serve as key catalysts that could materially move this probability as voters get closer to their final decisions.

Key factors:
- Candidate fundraising totals and cash-on-hand relative to other Republican primary competitors in TN-06
- Primary election date and timing of early voting, debates, or other campaign events that crystallize voter preferences
- Polling data or internal surveys showing Hilleary's standing among likely Republican primary voters in the district
- Endorsements from significant party figures, elected officials, or organizational groups in Tennessee
- Number of competing Republican candidates in the primary and their respective campaign viability

Contracts:
- Will Justin Pearson be the Democratic nominee for TN-09?: Justin Pearson — 81¢ Kalshi $114 (weight 60%)
- Will Mike Cortese be the Democratic nominee for TN-04?: Mike Cortese — 72¢ Kalshi $19 (weight 10%)
- Will Brent Taylor be the Republican nominee for TN-09?: Brent Taylor — 73¢ Kalshi $18 (weight 10%)
- Will Scott DesJarlais be the Republican nominee for TN-04?: Scott DesJarlais — 92¢ Kalshi $15 (weight 8%)
- Will Kristi Burke be the Democratic nominee for TN-01?: Kristi Burke — 62¢ Kalshi $8 (weight 4%)
- Will Lore Bergman be the Democratic nominee for TN-06?: Lore Bergman — 75¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 3%)
- Will Anna Golladay be the Democratic nominee for TN-03?: Anna Golladay — 73¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 3%)
- Will Vincent Dixie be the Democratic nominee for TN-07?: Vincent Dixie — 72¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 3%)
- ... and 3 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:09.933Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "61% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/tnprimary
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Van%20Hilleary%20be%20the%20Republican%20nominee%20for%20TN-06
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev