76% — Will Toll Brothers, Inc. report above 2350 Delivered Homes in Q2 2026
Leader: Above 2600 at 76% · Kalshi 76% · 6 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 14:01:37 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market prices the likelihood that Toll Brothers will deliver more than 2,350 homes in the second quarter of 2026 at 87%, suggesting strong confidence in the company's delivery pace. The high probability reflects Toll Brothers' recent performance as a major homebuilder and relatively stable operational output. However, the spread across contracts—where above-2,550 homes trades at only 38%—indicates uncertainty about the upper end of delivery potential. The primary resolution driver is Toll Brothers' Q2 2026 earnings release, typically occurring in August 2026, which will report actual delivered units. Key factors influencing this outcome include current order backlogs, construction cycle timing, labor availability, supply chain constraints, and broader housing market demand. The large gap between the base threshold (2,350) and higher tiers suggests markets expect solid but not exceptional delivery performance.

Key factors:
- Toll Brothers' trailing twelve-month delivery pace and current backlog conversion rates
- Housing starts and mortgage rate environment through Q2 2026, which affect demand and construction timelines
- Labor availability and supply chain conditions for building materials during the quarter
- Actual reported delivered units when Q2 2026 earnings are released, typically in August 2026
- Comparison to Toll Brothers' historical quarterly delivery volumes and recent guidance

Contracts:
- Will Toll Brothers Inc. report Above 2600 deliveries in Q3 2026?: Above 2600 — 76¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will Toll Brothers Inc. report Above 2700 deliveries in Q3 2026?: Above 2700 — 45¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will Toll Brothers Inc. report Above 2800 deliveries in Q3 2026?: Above 2800 — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will Toll Brothers Inc. report Above 2900 deliveries in Q3 2026?: Above 2900 — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will Toll Brothers Inc. report Above 3100 deliveries in Q3 2026?: Above 3100 — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will Toll Brothers Inc. report Above 3000 deliveries in Q3 2026?: Above 3000 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-26T13:20:51.471Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "76% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/tol
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Toll%20Brothers%2C%20Inc.%20report%20above%202350%20Delivered%20Homes%20in%20Q2%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev