65% — Top 14: ASM Clermont Auvergne vs Perpignan
Leader: ASM Clermont Auvergne vs Perpignan: ASM Clermont Auvergne at 65% · Polymarket 65% · 3 contracts · $384 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:22:18 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This represents the current market assessment that the ASM Clermont Auvergne versus Perpignan Top 14 match will end in a draw, with a 28% implied probability. The draw price reflects the relatively low historical frequency of ties in rugby union, where decisive outcomes are more common than goalless stalemates in other sports. Current pricing suggests traders view an ASM win as the marginal favorite, with Perpignan at 19%. The main drivers of this probability are each team's recent form, head-to-head history, injury status, and home-field advantage if applicable. The match itself will provide the definitive resolution, determining whether the draw outcome materializes or one team secures victory.

Key factors:
- Historical draw frequency in Top 14 matches typically ranges 5-12%, making 28% an elevated relative to baseline expectations
- ASM Clermont's recent performance record and current league position relative to Perpignan's standings
- Team composition, particularly availability of key players and recent injury reports affecting both sides
- Head-to-head matchup history between the two clubs in recent seasons
- Match venue and whether home-field advantage patterns have historically favored either team in draws

Contracts:
- Top 14: ASM Clermont Auvergne vs Perpignan: ASM Clermont Auvergne — 65¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Top 14: ASM Clermont Auvergne vs Perpignan: Perpignan — 14¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Top 14: ASM Clermont Auvergne vs Perpignan: Draw — 3¢ Polymarket $384 (weight 100%)

Cite as: "65% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/top-14-asm-clermont-auvergne-vs-perpignan
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Top%2014%3A%20ASM%20Clermont%20Auvergne%20vs%20Perpignan
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev