93% — How many straight weeks will 'ICEMAN' be #1
Leader: More than 2 weeks at 93% · Kalshi 93% · 5 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 03:10:19 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates an 83% probability that the song 'ICEMAN' will remain the #1 ranked track for a specific number of consecutive weeks. The current odds reflect expectations based on the track's recent chart performance and streaming momentum. The probability is driven primarily by how long 'ICEMAN' maintains its dominant chart position against competing releases and shifts in listener engagement. A key catalyst is the weekly chart update cycle, which determines whether 'ICEMAN' retains the top spot or loses ground to other songs. Market participants are essentially pricing in the likelihood that momentum persists through multiple consecutive weeks rather than being displaced quickly by newer releases or resurgent competitors.

Key factors:
- Current streaming volume and weekly listener engagement metrics compared to nearest competing tracks
- Release schedule and promotional intensity of competing songs expected during the timeframe in question
- Historical chart persistence patterns for similar-positioned songs in this artist's catalog and genre
- Weekly chart methodology and voting/streaming weighting that determines #1 rankings
- Performance trends over the past 2-4 weeks showing whether momentum is accelerating, stable, or declining

Contracts:
- How many straight weeks will 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' be #1?: More than 2 weeks — 93¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- How many straight weeks will 'petal' be #1?: More than 1 week — 78¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 98%)
- How many straight weeks will 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' be #1?: More than 3 weeks — 45¢ Kalshi $19 (weight 1%)
- How many straight weeks will 'petal' be #1?: More than 2 weeks — 32¢ Kalshi $34 (weight 1%)
- How many straight weeks will 'petal' be #1?: More than 3 weeks — 5¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T02:20:49.331Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "93% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/topalbumrecord
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20many%20straight%20weeks%20will%20'ICEMAN'%20be%20%231
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev