11% — Will The Art of Loving be the #2 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026 Kalshi 11% · 7 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-10 06:03:17 UTC Why this matters: This contract asks whether "The Art of Loving" will rank as the second-most streamed album globally on Spotify's 2026 Wrapped chart, released in early December 2026. The 12% probability reflects skepticism about this album achieving that specific position among billions of streams. The main driver of this low probability is that reaching #2 globally requires extraordinary streaming volume—only one album can rank higher—and the broader music market includes releases from established artists across all genres and regions. The contract resolves when Spotify officially publishes its 2026 Wrapped rankings in December 2026, at which point the exact album rankings become a matter of public record. Until then, streaming performance remains uncertain and dependent on release timing, marketing, artist popularity, and listener engagement over the coming seven months. Key factors: - The album must accumulate more streams than all but one other album released or streamed in 2026, competing against releases from globally dominant artists - Spotify Wrapped rankings reflect only streams counted within Spotify's 2026 calendar period and geographic weighting, which differs from real-time chart positions - The album's release date, if scheduled late in 2026, would limit total accumulation time compared to albums with earlier releases - Current artist streaming rankings on related contracts show Drake at 71¢ for #1 U.S. artist status, suggesting conditional probability varies significantly by chart type and region - The #2 position is uniquely constrained—only one album can rank higher—making this a more specific outcome than general top-10 placement Contracts: - Will Dandelion be the #2 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Dandelion — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will Short n’ Sweet be the #2 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Short n’ Sweet — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will You’ll Be Alright, Kid be the #2 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: You’ll Be Alright, Kid — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will I’m The Problem be the #2 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: I’m The Problem — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will ARIRANG be the #2 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: ARIRANG — 48¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will The Art of Loving be the #2 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: The Art of Loving — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will The Great Divide: The Last of the Bugs be the #2 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: The Great Divide: The Last of the Bugs — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-10T05:20:50.528Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "11% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/topalbumspotifyrunnerup Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20The%20Art%20of%20Loving%20be%20the%20%232%20most%20streamed%20Album%20on%20the%20%202026%20Spotify%20Wrapped%20Top%2010%20Albums%20Globally%20chart%20on%20the%20date%20that%20the%20chart%20is%20released%20for%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev