12% — Will Drake be the #2 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026 Kalshi 12% · 9 contracts · $92 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 11:12:13 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects a roughly 1-in-9 chance that Drake finishes as the second-most streamed artist globally on Spotify's 2026 year-end Wrapped chart. The 11% price suggests market participants view Drake as unlikely to reach the #2 position, though more plausible than several competing artists. This outcome depends on Drake's streaming volume throughout 2026 relative to other major artists, particularly whether he releases new music and how audiences engage with it compared to competitors. The market shows stronger confidence in Drake reaching #1 in the U.S. specifically (71%) than achieving #2 globally (11%), indicating belief that global competition is steeper. Spotify will release the official 2026 Wrapped rankings in late October or early November 2026, definitively resolving this question. Until then, major music releases, viral moments, and streaming trends across the calendar year will shape the odds. Key factors: - Drake's streaming volume in 2026 will depend heavily on whether he releases new music and its commercial reception relative to 2025 performance - Global streaming distribution differs from U.S.-only markets; competitors like Bad Bunny and The Weeknd have strong international audiences that could outpace Drake - The #2 position requires Drake to exceed nearly all other artists except one globally; only one artist can occupy the second spot, making this inherently more restrictive than top-5 or top-10 placements - Historical Wrapped rankings show streaming leaders rarely shift dramatically year-over-year, so 2025's top artists will likely remain competitive in 2026 - Spotify's Wrapped rankings are finalized in October-November 2026 based on cumulative streams through approximately September 30, 2026 Contracts: - Will Taylor Swift be the #2 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Taylor Swift — 23¢ Kalshi $92 (weight 100%) - Will Bad Bunny be the #2 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Bad Bunny — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Beyoncé be the #2 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Beyoncé — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Bruno Mars be the #2 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Bruno Mars — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Chappell Roan be the #2 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Chappell Roan — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Drake be the #2 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Drake — 45¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Kendrick Lamar be the #2 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Kendrick Lamar — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Morgan Wallen be the #2 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Morgan Wallen — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T10:20:10.177Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "12% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/topartistrunnerup Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Drake%20be%20the%20%232%20most%20streamed%20Artist%20on%20the%20%202026%20Spotify%20Wrapped%20Top%2010%20Artist%20Globally%20chart%20on%20the%20date%20that%20the%20chart%20is%20released%20for%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev