19% — Will Morgan Wallen be the #2 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist U.S chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026 Kalshi 19% · 4 contracts · $608 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-25 08:40:12 UTC Why this matters: This represents the likelihood that Morgan Wallen finishes as the second-most streamed artist on Spotify's 2026 U.S. year-end chart when it releases in November or December 2026. The 20% probability reflects Morgan Wallen's strong streaming performance in country music but faces competition from established global acts. Taylor Swift currently has the highest implied probability at 34%, suggesting market participants expect either her or another mega-artist to occupy the #2 slot. Morgan Wallen's position depends on his release schedule, touring activity, and overall streaming momentum through year-end, while broader trends in music consumption and competing artists' catalog performance will also matter. The uncertainty resolves when Spotify officially releases its 2026 Wrapped data, typically in late November. Key factors: - Morgan Wallen's streaming volume in 2026 year-to-date compared to historical monthly averages and the pace needed to maintain top-2 positioning - Release of new music by Morgan Wallen and competing artists (Taylor Swift, Bad Bunny, Drake) between September-December 2026 and their streaming impact - Spotify's methodology for calculating yearly streaming totals and whether catalog plays, re-listens, or new releases drive the final ranking - Historical year-over-year volatility in Spotify Wrapped #2 positioning and how often the same artist repeats in that slot - The total streaming volume distribution across top artists in 2026; whether a clear tier-2 emerges or if multiple artists cluster closely Contracts: - Will Taylor Swift be the #2 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist U.S chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Taylor Swift — 62¢ Kalshi $262 (weight 43%) - Will Drake be the #2 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist U.S chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Drake — 6¢ Kalshi $223 (weight 37%) - Will Bad Bunny be the #2 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist U.S chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Bad Bunny — 4¢ Kalshi $123 (weight 20%) - Will Bruno Mars be the #2 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist U.S chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Bruno Mars — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-25T08:20:50.018Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "19% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/topartistrunnerupusa Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Morgan%20Wallen%20be%20the%20%232%20most%20streamed%20Artist%20on%20the%20%202026%20Spotify%20Wrapped%20Top%2010%20Artist%20U.S%20chart%20on%20the%20date%20that%20the%20chart%20is%20released%20for%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev