20% — Will Morgan Wallen be the #2 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist U.S chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026 Kalshi 20% · 4 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 11:12:13 UTC Why this matters: This contract resolves based on Morgan Wallen's final streaming rank on Spotify's 2026 Wrapped year-end chart for U.S. artists, releasing in early November 2026. The 21% probability reflects uncertainty about whether Wallen will specifically finish in the #2 position among top-streamed U.S. artists this year. Key drivers include Wallen's streaming velocity relative to Drake, Taylor Swift, and other major artists throughout 2026, the release of new music that could accelerate or stall his trajectory, and competitive dynamics as other artists release projects. The outcome depends entirely on aggregate streaming data compiled by Spotify over January-October 2026, with no external influence possible once that period closes. The contract resolves when Spotify officially publishes the 2026 Wrapped data in early November. Key factors: - Morgan Wallen's current streaming position relative to Drake (priced at 71¢ for #1 U.S.) and Taylor Swift (19¢ for #1 U.S.) as of May 2026 - Whether Wallen releases new material during 2026 and its streaming performance compared to concurrent releases by Swift, Drake, and other competitors - Historical seasonal streaming patterns and the impact of summer and fall 2026 release schedules on relative artist positioning - Wallen's recent chart performance and whether his May-October 2026 monthly streams maintain, grow, or decline versus his year-to-date rate - Spotify's methodology for calculating annual rankings and whether changes to how streams are weighted could affect final positioning Contracts: - Will Bad Bunny be the #2 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist U.S chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Bad Bunny — 27¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%) - Will Drake be the #2 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist U.S chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Drake — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%) - Will Morgan Wallen be the #2 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist U.S chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Morgan Wallen — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%) - Will Taylor Swift be the #2 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist U.S chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Taylor Swift — 26¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T10:20:08.324Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "20% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/topartistrunnerupusa Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Morgan%20Wallen%20be%20the%20%232%20most%20streamed%20Artist%20on%20the%20%202026%20Spotify%20Wrapped%20Top%2010%20Artist%20U.S%20chart%20on%20the%20date%20that%20the%20chart%20is%20released%20for%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev