14% — Will Chappell Roan be the #3 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026 Kalshi 14% · 6 contracts · $23 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:42 UTC Why this matters: This market asks whether Chappell Roan will rank as the third-most streamed artist globally on Spotify's 2026 year-end Wrapped chart when it releases in early December 2026. At 16% probability, the market suggests this outcome is unlikely but not negligible. Roan would need sustained streaming momentum through year-end to reach top-3 status globally, competing against established high-volume artists. The current probability reflects uncertainty about her trajectory following recent chart success, balanced against the difficulty of maintaining top-tier streaming positions across billions of global listeners. Resolution depends entirely on Spotify's final 2026 Wrapped rankings, released typically in late November or early December 2026. Her actual year-over-year streaming performance relative to competitors like Drake, Taylor Swift, and others through November will determine the outcome. Key factors: - Chappell Roan's cumulative streams through November 2026 compared to other major artists, especially those currently dominating global streaming platforms - Whether she releases new music in 2026 and its commercial performance, as new releases typically drive significant streaming volume spikes - The streaming volume generated by her existing catalog versus potential new competitors or declining streams from current top artists - Her geographic streaming distribution—whether growth is concentrated in specific regions or represents true global reach needed for top-3 global ranking - Spotify's algorithmic playlist placements and promotional support in 2026, which significantly influence streaming accumulation for all artists Contracts: - Will Morgan Wallen be the #3 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Morgan Wallen — 4¢ Kalshi $23 (weight 100%) - Will Bad Bunny be the #3 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Bad Bunny — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Chappell Roan be the #3 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Chappell Roan — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Drake be the #3 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Drake — 43¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Taylor Swift be the #3 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Taylor Swift — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will The Weeknd be the #3 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: The Weeknd — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:49.304Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "14% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/topartistthird Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Chappell%20Roan%20be%20the%20%233%20most%20streamed%20Artist%20on%20the%20%202026%20Spotify%20Wrapped%20Top%2010%20Artist%20Globally%20chart%20on%20the%20date%20that%20the%20chart%20is%20released%20for%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev