33% — Will DtMF be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026 Kalshi 33% · 3 contracts · $231 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-20 23:31:46 UTC Why this matters: This probability estimates the likelihood that 'DtMF' will be Spotify's most-streamed song globally when 2026 Wrapped is released, expected in late November or early December 2026. The 32% probability reflects competitive dynamics among multiple songs with different momentum profiles. 'End of Beginning' currently shows stronger market confidence at 67%, while 'Babydoll' sits at 27%, suggesting traders view the outcome as genuinely uncertain. The final ranking will depend on cumulative streaming volume through December 2026, making release timing, chart performance trends, and listener engagement over the next three months critical determinants. Spotify historically releases Wrapped in early December, which will definitively resolve the question by revealing verified global streaming statistics. Key factors: - DtMF's current streaming trajectory and monthly listener growth rate relative to competing songs as of September 2026 - Total accumulated streams for all three songs by the Wrapped release date, since final rankings are based on year-to-date global play counts - Major promotional events or releases by the artists behind each song between September and November 2026 that could shift listener behavior - Seasonal listening patterns and whether holiday playlists or end-of-year trends favor any particular track's genre or style - Spotify Wrapped release date confirmation in November or December 2026, which will provide the definitive ranked list and resolve all related contracts Contracts: - Will Babydoll be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Babydoll — 17¢ Kalshi $221 (weight 96%) - Will End of Beginning be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: End of Beginning — 80¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 4%) - Will DtMF be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: DtMF — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-20T23:20:50.030Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "33% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/topsongspotify Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20DtMF%20be%20the%20%231%20most%20streamed%20Song%20on%20the%20%202026%20Spotify%20Wrapped%20Top%2010%20Songs%20Globally%20chart%20on%20the%20date%20that%20the%20chart%20is%20released%20for%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev