10% — Will DtMF be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026 Kalshi 10% · 4 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 11:12:13 UTC Why this matters: This contract asks whether DtMF will be the #1 most-streamed song globally according to Spotify's year-end 2026 Wrapped chart, currently priced at 20% probability. The relatively modest probability reflects that achieving the #1 position globally requires sustained streaming dominance across all regions throughout 2026, a high bar given music's fragmented listening patterns and the emergence of new releases during the year. The current 20% estimate appears influenced by competing strong candidates—Babydoll is priced at 37% for the same outcome, suggesting market participants view it as the stronger contender. The market will fully resolve in late November or early December 2026 when Spotify publicly releases its annual Wrapped charts, providing definitive streaming tallies. Until then, DtMF's trajectory depends on maintaining momentum through the second half of 2026 against both established competition and new releases yet to come. Key factors: - DtMF's streaming volume and growth trajectory through mid-to-late 2026 compared to competing songs like Babydoll and End of Beginning - Geographic distribution of DtMF's streams—global #1 requires strong performance across multiple regions, not just USA dominance - Release timing and promotional activity around competing tracks in the second half of 2026 that could capture listener attention - Spotify's final streaming count methodology and exact Wrapped release date, which determines the precise measurement window for the 2026 rankings Contracts: - Will Beauty and a Beat be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Beauty and a Beat — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%) - Will Babydoll be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Babydoll — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%) - Will End of Beginning be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: End of Beginning — 18¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%) - Will Stateside be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Stateside + Zara Larsson — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T10:20:07.764Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "10% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/topsongspotify Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20DtMF%20be%20the%20%231%20most%20streamed%20Song%20on%20the%20%202026%20Spotify%20Wrapped%20Top%2010%20Songs%20Globally%20chart%20on%20the%20date%20that%20the%20chart%20is%20released%20for%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev