8% — Will BIRDS OF A FEATHER be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026 Kalshi 8% · 10 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 06:02:22 UTC Why this matters: This contract asks whether "Birds of a Feather" will rank as the second-most streamed song globally on Spotify's 2026 year-end Wrapped chart when released in early December 2026. The 9% probability reflects skepticism about a specific song holding the #2 position among all global streams over an entire year. For context, top songs typically accumulate billions of streams, and achieving a top-two position requires sustained global appeal across multiple months. The probability would increase if the song continues gaining traction through mid-2026 or if it receives major playlist placement. It would decrease if competing songs from major artists (like Drake, The Weeknd, or Bad Bunny) release chart-dominating tracks. The contract resolves on December 3-4, 2026, when Spotify officially publishes its annual Wrapped data, making streaming performance through November the decisive factor. Key factors: - Current cumulative streaming volume of 'Birds of a Feather' relative to songs projected to finish in top positions by year-end - Historical placement patterns showing whether songs from mid-year releases realistically achieve #2 global positioning by December - Competitive landscape of major releases expected throughout 2026 from chart-dominant artists - Whether the song maintains playlist momentum and cross-regional appeal through the final months of 2026 - Spotify's algorithmic promotion patterns and whether 'Birds of a Feather' receives sustained featured placement Contracts: - Will Babydoll be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Babydoll — 28¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%) - Will Beauty and a Beat be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Beauty and a Beat — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%) - Will BIRDS OF A FEATHER be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: BIRDS OF A FEATHER — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%) - Will Die With A Smile be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Die With A Smile — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%) - Will Don’t Say You Love Me be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Don’t Say You Love Me — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%) - Will End of Beginning be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: End of Beginning — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%) - Will Manchild be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Manchild — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%) - Will Ordinary be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Ordinary — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T05:20:49.555Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "8% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/topsongspotifyrunnerup Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20BIRDS%20OF%20A%20FEATHER%20be%20the%20%232%20most%20streamed%20Song%20on%20the%20%202026%20Spotify%20Wrapped%20Top%2010%20Songs%20Globally%20chart%20on%20the%20date%20that%20the%20chart%20is%20released%20for%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev