13% — Will luther (with sza) be the #3 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026 Kalshi 13% · 12 contracts · $100 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-25 09:21:48 UTC Why this matters: This question asks whether 'luther' featuring SZA will rank as the third-most streamed song on Spotify's 2026 USA year-end Wrapped chart when released in early December. The 8% probability reflects strong competition for the #3 position, with other SZA and contemporary tracks showing higher market estimates. The probability depends on streaming volume accumulation through December 2026, the release timing and promotion of competing tracks, and listener engagement patterns over the final months of the year. Spotify will release the official 2026 Wrapped rankings in early December, at which point the actual chart position becomes known. Until then, relative streaming momentum, chart performance on weekly Spotify playlists, and total listen counts through November will indicate whether 'luther' maintains pace with higher-ranked competitors like 'Man I Need' (21¢) and 'Babydoll' (13¢). Key factors: - Song's streaming volume and listener engagement through November 2026 compared to songs priced higher in competing markets - Spotify's Wrapped methodology for US rankings and whether 'luther' maintains top-10 positioning relative to other SZA tracks and contemporary releases - Cumulative play counts as of December 2026 wrapped snapshot date and whether the track shows acceleration or plateau in user engagement - Competitive field: 'Man I Need' and 'Babydoll' show significantly higher probabilities, indicating market belief in those tracks' relative performance - Release or promotion timing of competing tracks in Q4 2026 that could affect streaming distribution and 'luther's ranking position Contracts: - Will Earrings be the #3 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Earrings — 12¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 100%) - Will APT. be the #3 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: APT. — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will BIRDS OF A FEATHER be the #3 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: BIRDS OF A FEATHER — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Don’t Say You Love Me be the #3 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Don’t Say You Love Me — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will DtMF be the #3 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: DtMF — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will End of Beginning be the #3 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: End of Beginning — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Golden be the #3 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Golden — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will luther (with sza) be the #3 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: luther (with sza) — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 4 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-25T09:20:49.612Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/topsongthirdusa Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20luther%20(with%20sza)%20be%20the%20%233%20most%20streamed%20Song%20on%20the%20%202026%20Spotify%20Wrapped%20Top%2010%20Songs%20USA%20chart%20on%20the%20date%20that%20the%20chart%20is%20released%20for%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev