7% — Will luther (with sza) be the #3 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026 Kalshi 7% · 12 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 11:12:13 UTC Why this matters: This contract asks whether 'Luther (with SZA)' will rank as the #3 most streamed song on Spotify's 2026 Wrapped Top 10 Songs chart for the USA when released in late 2026. The 8% probability reflects the difficulty of a single song maintaining extremely high streaming volume through the full year while competing against other major releases. The song's ranking depends on cumulative streams from release through year-end; performance drivers include continued chart presence, cultural relevance, playlist placement, and competition from newer releases. The primary resolution catalyst is Spotify's official 2026 Wrapped release, typically occurring in early December, which will definitively show year-to-date streaming rankings. Key factors: - The song must accumulate enough total streams across the full 2026 calendar year to land exactly in the #3 position among all USA songs on that specific year-end chart - Release timing and date significantly impact final stream totals; earlier 2026 releases have more months to accumulate plays than later releases - Competition from high-performing tracks by Drake, The Weeknd, Taylor Swift, and other major artists throughout 2026 will determine relative ranking - Streaming velocity across months matters; songs with front-loaded popularity may not sustain position, while gradual climbers could rank higher - The exact methodology Spotify uses to calculate 2026 Wrapped rankings (total streams vs. other metrics) directly determines whether specific historical streaming patterns predict this outcome Contracts: - Will APT. be the #3 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: APT. — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will BIRDS OF A FEATHER be the #3 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: BIRDS OF A FEATHER — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will Don’t Say You Love Me be the #3 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Don’t Say You Love Me — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will DtMF be the #3 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: DtMF — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will End of Beginning be the #3 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: End of Beginning — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will The Fate of Ophelia be the #3 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: The Fate of Ophelia — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will Golden be the #3 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Golden — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will luther (with sza) be the #3 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: luther (with sza) — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - ... and 4 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T10:20:08.557Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "7% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/topsongthirdusa Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20luther%20(with%20sza)%20be%20the%20%233%20most%20streamed%20Song%20on%20the%20%202026%20Spotify%20Wrapped%20Top%2010%20Songs%20USA%20chart%20on%20the%20date%20that%20the%20chart%20is%20released%20for%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev