88% — Will there be more than 175 tornadoes in April Leader: Above 375 at 88% · Kalshi 88% · 13 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-29 02:44:24 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 13 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract resolves based on whether April 2026 will record more than 175 tornado events in the United States. The 97% probability reflects historical tornado frequency data and seasonal patterns; April is typically the second-most active tornado month after May, with average counts often exceeding this threshold. The probability would move downward if April weather patterns prove unusually stable or atmospheric conditions fail to support tornado development. Resolution will depend on official preliminary tornado counts released by the Storm Data division of the National Weather Service, typically available within weeks after month-end. The single largest factor determining outcome is spring atmospheric conditions during April—specifically the frequency and intensity of severe weather systems moving through tornado alley. Key factors: - Historical April tornado averages in the U.S. typically range from 80–120 events, meaning 175 is well above the median but achievable in active seasons - Spring 2026 sea-surface temperature patterns and upper-level atmospheric conditions will determine tornado-supporting weather system frequency during April - The National Weather Service Storm Data database provides the official tornado count; preliminary April data becomes available in early May with possible adjustments through mid-year - An exceptionally dry or stable atmospheric pattern in April would reduce severe weather system development and lower tornado likelihood - El Niño or La Niña conditions and the North Atlantic Oscillation phase influence spring severe weather frequency and intensity across the tornado belt Contracts: - Will there be more than 375 tornadoes in June?: Above 375 — 88¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 40%) - Will there be more than 50 tornadoes in July?: Above 50 — 72¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will there be more than 75 tornadoes in July?: Above 75 — 55¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will there be more than 100 tornadoes in July?: Above 100 — 49¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will there be more than 150 tornadoes in July?: Above 150 — 35¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will there be more than 125 tornadoes in July?: Above 125 — 33¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will there be more than 175 tornadoes in July?: Above 175 — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will there be more than 400 tornadoes in June?: Above 400 — 8¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 33%) - ... and 5 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-29T02:20:50.733Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "88% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/tornado Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%20175%20tornadoes%20in%20April Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev