19% — Toronto FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes
Kalshi 19% · 1 contracts · $585 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 10:41:08 UTC

Why this matters:
This 7% probability reflects market expectations that San Jose will win the MLS Cup in 2026. The low figure suggests traders view the Earthquakes as significant underdogs, despite their Western Conference championship odds trading at 16¢ on Kalshi. The gap between Kalshi (10%) and Polymarket (4%) indicates disagreement about San Jose's championship prospects. Key factors include the team's current league standing and recent form, roster composition relative to other MLS contenders, and injury status of key players. The MLS Cup playoff tournament in December will ultimately resolve this contract, with qualification and seeding determined through the regular season. Trading volume remains modest ($240-$300 in 24h), suggesting limited market conviction either direction. The presence of a Cristiano Ronaldo contract (priced at 3¢) suggests some traders are hedging on potential roster changes that could materially affect San Jose's odds.

Key factors:
- San Jose's current league position and points per game compared to traditional MLS contenders and defending champions
- Roster depth and player quality across defensive, midfield, and attacking positions versus the top 4-5 championship favorites
- Injury status and availability of starting XI players entering the latter stages of the regular season
- Head-to-head strength-of-schedule remaining through playoffs and historical performance in single-elimination MLS Cup formats
- Trading volume disparity between venues (Polymarket 4¢ vs. Kalshi 10¢) suggests model disagreements about underlying championship probability

Contracts:
- Will San Jose win the MLS Western Conference?: San Jose — 19¢ Kalshi $585 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T10:20:51.338Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "19% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/toronto-fc-vs-san-jose-earthquakes
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Toronto%20FC%20vs.%20San%20Jose%20Earthquakes
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev