94% — Will Toast Inc. report Above 207 thousand total locations in 2026
Leader: Above 189 thousand at 94% · Kalshi 94% · 7 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-11 19:24:00 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This measures whether Toast Inc., a restaurant software company, will operate or franchise above 207,000 locations by year-end 2026. The 86% probability reflects market confidence in reaching 192,000 locations, but drops sharply for higher thresholds—only 6% odds Toast exceeds 207,000. The market is pricing in steady but constrained growth. Upside movement would depend on accelerated franchise expansion, better-than-expected customer retention, or acquisition-driven scaling. Downside pressure comes from market saturation, integration challenges, or reduced customer demand for Toast's platform. The key uncertainty resolves when Toast reports 2026 year-end location figures, typically in early 2027 earnings reports. Current trading volume concentrates on 195-198k thresholds, suggesting most market participants expect growth in the 192-210k range but view significant upside as unlikely this year.

Key factors:
- Toast's historical location growth rate and franchise velocity through mid-2026 determines feasibility of 207k target; slower adoption would make 207k increasingly improbable
- Customer churn and net new customer acquisition in Toast's core restaurant segments directly affect location count; competitive pressures or product dissatisfaction could constrain growth
- Material acquisitions or franchise partnership announcements would be immediate catalysts affecting probability upward; absence of major deals tilts market lower
- Market saturation in Toast's primary verticals and the company's capital allocation priorities influence expansion aggressiveness
- Toast's 2026 year-end earnings report and audited location count disclosure will fully resolve the contract; timing expected early 2027

Contracts:
- Will Toast Inc. report Above 189 thousand total locations in 2026?: Above 189 thousand — 94¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Will Toast Inc. report Above 192 thousand total locations in 2026?: Above 192 thousand — 87¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Will Toast Inc. report Above 195 thousand total locations in 2026?: Above 195 thousand — 72¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Will Toast Inc. report Above 198 thousand total locations in 2026?: Above 198 thousand — 26¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Will Toast Inc. report Above 201 thousand total locations in 2026?: Above 201 thousand — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Will Toast Inc. report Above 204 thousand total locations in 2026?: Above 204 thousand — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Will Toast Inc. report Above 207 thousand total locations in 2026?: Above 207 thousand — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-08-11T19:20:51.510Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "94% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/tosta
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Toast%20Inc.%20report%20Above%20207%20thousand%20total%20locations%20in%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev