35% — Will Drake announce a new tour this year Kalshi 35% · 20 contracts · $277 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 09:42:35 UTC Why this matters: This reflects a moderate likelihood that Drake will publicly announce a new tour sometime in 2026. At 45%, the market is pricing roughly even odds relative to uncertainty. Drake's touring history shows regular intervals between major announcements, typically spanning several years. The probability hinges on whether he releases new album material this year—tour announcements traditionally follow new music releases or creative cycles. Key factors influencing this outcome include whether Drake drops a new album, his recent public activity and health status, and typical industry timing for artist announcements. A major catalog release or festival headlining confirmation would be the most direct catalyst for resolving this upward or downward. Compared to peer artists on similar markets, Drake's 45% sits between Beyoncé (47%) and Bad Bunny (42%), suggesting moderate but not exceptional tour announcement likelihood for 2026. Key factors: - Drake's last major tour (Certified Lover Boy tour) ended in 2022; typical gap between his tour announcements is 2-4 years - New album release or surprise project would substantially increase announcement probability; no confirmed 2026 album has been announced as of May - Drake's public appearances and social media activity level in recent months suggest baseline career momentum but lack of imminent tour signals - Comparison to peer artists shows varied probabilities (Bieber 80%, Beyoncé 47%, Bad Bunny 42%), indicating touring patterns differ significantly by artist - Festival headlining slots or leaked tour dates would provide early indication; May-June announcements are typical timing for major artist fall/winter tours Contracts: - Will Kanye West / Ye announce a new tour this year?: Kanye West / Ye — 28¢ Kalshi $200 (weight 72%) - Will Rihanna announce a new tour this year?: Rihanna — 26¢ Kalshi $44 (weight 16%) - Will Bad Bunny announce a new tour this year?: Bad Bunny — 29¢ Kalshi $12 (weight 4%) - Will Sabrina Carpenter announce a new tour this year?: Sabrina Carpenter — 45¢ Kalshi $8 (weight 3%) - Will Dua Lipa announce a new tour this year?: Dua Lipa — 29¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 3%) - Will Lady Gaga announce a new tour this year?: Lady Gaga — 37¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 2%) - Will Adele announce a new tour this year?: Adele — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Beyoncé announce a new tour this year?: Beyoncé — 39¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:48.769Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "35% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/tour Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Drake%20announce%20a%20new%20tour%20this%20year Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev