11% — Will Drake announce a new tour this year Kalshi 11% · 17 contracts · $131 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-21 02:43:17 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects traders' assessment that Drake will announce a new tour before December 31, 2026. At 33%, it suggests meaningful uncertainty, roughly split between those expecting an announcement and those skeptical. The probability is shaped by Drake's touring patterns—he has varied significantly in tour frequency across recent years—and the typical timing of major hip-hop artist announcements, which often cluster in Q3 and Q4. The biggest catalyst would be any Drake social media announcement, official statement from his team, or appearance at a major music event where tour plans might be revealed. Several comparable artists show higher probabilities (Travis Scott at 63%, Nicki Minaj at 53%), suggesting the broader market sees Drake as less likely to tour this year than certain peers. Resolution depends on an explicit announcement through official channels, not speculation or rumors. Key factors: - Drake toured extensively in 2022-2023 but has had limited touring activity in 2024-2025, making prediction frequency uncertain - No official announcement or pre-announcement hints have been reported as of July 2026 - Comparable artists show materially higher probabilities, with Travis Scott at 63% and Nicki Minaj at 53% - The resolution window narrows significantly after September, making Q3 announcements the most likely catalyst - Kalshi contract volume for Drake ($431 in 24h) is substantially higher than most comparable artists, indicating stronger market interest Contracts: - Will Drake announce a new tour this year?: Drake — 37¢ Kalshi $106 (weight 81%) - Will Beyoncé announce a new tour this year?: Beyoncé — 3¢ Kalshi $23 (weight 17%) - Will Nicki Minaj announce a new tour this year?: Nicki Minaj — 25¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 2%) - Will Frank Ocean announce a new tour this year?: Frank Ocean — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Adele announce a new tour this year?: Adele — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Justin Bieber announce a new tour this year?: Justin Bieber — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Taylor Swift announce a new tour this year?: Taylor Swift — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Travis Scott announce a new tour this year?: Travis Scott — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 9 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-21T02:20:51.161Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "11% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/tour Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Drake%20announce%20a%20new%20tour%20this%20year Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev