89% — Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 95‎ billion and 104.9‎ billion
Leader: Above 170‎ billion at 89% · Kalshi 89% · 4 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-09 21:03:14 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that the US trade deficit will exceed $170 billion in 2026, based on current trading patterns and economic conditions. The high price suggests traders believe the deficit is more likely to be larger rather than smaller or moderate. Two main factors are driving this outlook: continued consumer demand for imports relative to export growth, and the trajectory of the dollar's exchange rate, which affects the competitiveness of US goods abroad. The resolution will depend on final 2026 trade data released by the Census Bureau in early 2027, but monthly trade reports throughout the year will provide early signals about whether the deficit is tracking toward larger or smaller annual totals. Exchange rate movements, global demand conditions, and trade policy changes over the remaining months of 2026 represent the key uncertainties that could shift this probability meaningfully.

Key factors:
- Monthly trade deficits through December 2026 will be published by the Census Bureau, providing progressive clarity on the annual deficit trajectory
- The US-China trade relationship and any tariff adjustments in 2026 directly affect import volumes and pricing
- The strength of the US dollar relative to major trading partners influences export competitiveness and import costs
- Consumer spending patterns and domestic demand relative to historical averages will determine import volumes
- Global economic growth rates in key US trading partners affect demand for American exports

Contracts:
- Will US trade deficit for 2026 be above 170‎ billion?: Above 170‎ billion — 89¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 119.6‎ billion and 119.9‎ billion?: 119.6‎ billion to 119.9‎ billion — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 65‎ billion and 74.9‎ billion?: 65‎ billion to 74.9‎ billion — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 95‎ billion and 104.9‎ billion?: 95‎ billion to 104.9‎ billion — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-09T20:20:49.800Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "89% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/tradedeficit
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20US%20trade%20deficit%20for%202026%20be%20between%2095%E2%80%8E%20billion%20and%20104.9%E2%80%8E%20billion
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev