34% — Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Syria
Leader: Uganda at 34% · Kalshi 34% · 8 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-28 18:17:11 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates the likelihood that the U.S. State Department will downgrade Syria's travel warning to level 3 or lower by January 2027, currently priced at 11%. Syria has maintained a level 4 warning (do not travel) since 2011 due to ongoing conflict and instability. The low probability reflects the significant security challenges that would need to resolve for such a downgrade. Key drivers include the pace of Syrian political stabilization, international recognition of any new government, and U.S. diplomatic reassessment priorities. The resolution depends on State Department official policy changes, which typically follow major developments in Syrian security conditions or political transition. Upcoming indicators include any peace negotiations, humanitarian situation improvements, or shifts in regional dynamics that might prompt the department to reconsider its advisory stance.

Key factors:
- Syria's current level 4 travel warning has remained in place since 2011; a downgrade would require sustained security improvements verified by U.S. intelligence and diplomatic assessments
- Recent Syrian political developments and international recognition status; the degree to which Syrian institutions gain international legitimacy affects U.S. willingness to revise travel guidance
- Comparative regional travel advisory trends; U.S. policy on similar countries experiencing post-conflict transitions may influence Syria assessment methodology
- State Department review cycles and diplomatic priorities; travel warnings are typically updated in response to verified security changes rather than on fixed schedules
- Economic and humanitarian indicators in Syria; reconstruction progress and normalization of civil institutions are prerequisites for meaningful advisory downgrade consideration

Contracts:
- Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Uganda?: Uganda — 34¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Democratic Republic of the Congo?: Democratic Republic of the Congo — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Lebanon?: Lebanon — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Ukraine?: Ukraine — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for South Sudan?: South Sudan — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Russia?: Russia — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Syria?: Syria — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Yemen?: Yemen — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-28T17:20:51.430Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "34% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/traveldowngrade
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20U.S.%20State%20Department%20issue%20a%20level%203%20or%20lower%20warning%20for%20Syria
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev