47% — Will there be more than 12 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026 Leader: Above 10 at 47% · Kalshi 47% · 6 contracts · $51 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-24 15:13:08 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes. Why this matters: The 22% probability reflects traders' assessment that 2026 will see more than 12 Atlantic hurricanes, with the leading contract at 42% suggesting most traders expect 10–12 hurricanes. Atlantic hurricane frequency depends on sea-surface temperatures, atmospheric wind shear, and other climate conditions that typically peak in late summer and autumn. The 2026 season will resolve through the National Hurricane Center's official count, recorded as storms reach hurricane strength. Current pricing suggests traders see a roughly one-in-five chance of exceeding the 12-hurricane threshold, compared to historical averages. The resolution date arrives in late November 2026 when the official Atlantic hurricane season ends, though most uncertainty will narrow significantly by October as the peak months conclude and actual storm counts become clearer. Key factors: - Sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Atlantic basin through September–October 2026 will be a primary driver; warmer conditions typically favor more hurricane formation - Atmospheric wind shear patterns during peak season months (August–October) directly suppress or enable hurricane development and intensification - The official count from the National Hurricane Center provides the only authoritative resolution; storms must reach sustained winds of 74 mph to be classified as hurricanes - Historical Atlantic hurricane frequency averages 7–8 per season, making 12+ storms a notably above-average outcome reflected in the lower probability - As of late August 2026, two months of the peak season remain, allowing significant revision to seasonal forecasts as actual storms form and meteorological conditions evolve Contracts: - Will there be more than 10 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 10 — 47¢ Kalshi $51 (weight 100%) - Will there be more than 12 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 12 — 37¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will there be more than 14 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 14 — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will there be more than 16 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 16 — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will there be more than 18 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 18 — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will there be more than 20 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 20 — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-24T13:20:49.364Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "47% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/tropstorm Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%2012%20%20Atlantic%20hurricanes%20in%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev