92% — Will the Truflation US CPI Eggs Index on May 26, 2026 be above $2.69 per dozen eggs
Leader: Above $2.66 per dozen eggs at 92% · Kalshi 92% · 6 contracts · $294 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 23:40:20 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market is assessing the likelihood that egg prices measured by Truflation's index will exceed $2.69 per dozen on May 26, 2026. The 71% probability reflects expectations that inflation in egg prices will remain elevated relative to this threshold. Egg prices are driven primarily by supply-side factors—particularly avian flu outbreaks, which have repeatedly disrupted production and spiked costs over the past two years—and seasonal demand patterns. Feed costs and labor availability also influence pricing. The resolution depends on the actual Truflation index reading released for May 26, 2026, which will reflect real-time market transactions. The narrow gap between contracts at different price levels ($2.69–$2.74) suggests traders see prices clustered around this range rather than dramatically higher or lower. Historical volatility in egg markets and uncertainty about disease prevalence between now and May 2026 create the primary source of disagreement among traders.

Key factors:
- Avian flu outbreak severity and geographic spread between now and May 2026 directly affects production capacity and wholesale egg prices
- Seasonal demand cycles peak in spring holidays (Easter) but also correlate with school year patterns, affecting near-term pricing
- The $0.05 spread across the top contracts indicates traders expect prices to remain tightly clustered, suggesting moderate confidence in the $2.69–$2.74 range rather than tail outcomes
- Feed commodity prices (corn and soy) and labor costs for producers are measurable inputs that correlate with retail egg inflation
- Truflation's index methodology captures actual transaction prices, not list prices, making it sensitive to real market clearing prices across the supply chain

Contracts:
- Will the Truflation US CPI Eggs Index on May 28, 2026 be above $2.66 per dozen eggs?: Above $2.66 per dozen eggs — 92¢ Kalshi $64 (weight 22%)
- Will the Truflation US CPI Eggs Index on May 28, 2026 be above $2.68 per dozen eggs?: Above $2.68 per dozen eggs — 83¢ Kalshi $60 (weight 20%)
- Will the Truflation US CPI Eggs Index on May 28, 2026 be above $2.67 per dozen eggs?: Above $2.67 per dozen eggs — 60¢ Kalshi $114 (weight 39%)
- Will the Truflation US CPI Eggs Index on May 28, 2026 be above $2.74 per dozen eggs?: Above $2.74 per dozen eggs — 5¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)
- Will the Truflation US CPI Eggs Index on May 28, 2026 be above $2.75 per dozen eggs?: Above $2.75 per dozen eggs — 5¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)
- Will the Truflation US CPI Eggs Index on May 28, 2026 be above $2.73 per dozen eggs?: Above $2.73 per dozen eggs — 3¢ Kalshi $54 (weight 18%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T23:20:11.057Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "92% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trufeggs
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Truflation%20US%20CPI%20Eggs%20Index%20on%20May%2026%2C%202026%20be%20above%20%242.69%20per%20dozen%20eggs
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev