63% — Will the Total Public Debt on May 28, 2026 be above 38.97T Leader: Above 38.82T at 63% · Kalshi 63% · 13 contracts · $293 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-05-28 20:44:02 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 13 outcomes. Why this matters: This prediction reflects market expectations that U.S. total public debt will exceed $38.97 trillion by May 28, 2026, with traders assigning a 91% probability to this outcome. The high confidence reflects the consistent trajectory of federal debt accumulation driven by ongoing budget deficits, which have persisted despite economic growth. Debt levels are primarily shaped by the gap between federal revenues and spending, influenced by factors like interest rates, economic growth, and legislative fiscal decisions. The resolution hinges on the Treasury Department's official public debt figures released after May 28, 2026, which typically occurs within days of month-end. Current contract spreads show traders distinguish between finer debt thresholds—91% for above $38.82T but only 52% for above $39.47T—suggesting uncertainty about the precise debt level while confidence remains high that moderate growth will occur. Key factors: - Recent quarterly debt growth rates and Treasury issuance patterns provide the baseline for extrapolating to May 2026 - Interest rate environment and refinancing costs affect both deficit dynamics and debt service obligations heading into the resolution date - Congressional fiscal actions between now and May 2026, including spending bills and revenue measures, directly determine year-over-year debt accumulation - Economic growth rates influence both tax revenues and demand for Treasury borrowing, creating offsetting pressure on debt levels - The official Treasury Department public debt figure released after May 28, 2026 serves as the single resolution mechanism that determines contract settlement Contracts: - Will the Total Public Debt on May 28, 2026 be above 38.82T?: Above 38.82T — 63¢ Kalshi $268 (weight 92%) - Will the Total Public Debt on May 28, 2026 be above 39.52T?: Above 39.52T — 8¢ Kalshi $21 (weight 7%) - Will the Total Public Debt on May 28, 2026 be above 38.97T?: Above 38.97T — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the Total Public Debt on May 28, 2026 be above 39.02T?: Above 39.02T — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the Total Public Debt on May 28, 2026 be above 39.07T?: Above 39.07T — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the Total Public Debt on May 28, 2026 be above 39.12T?: Above 39.12T — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the Total Public Debt on May 28, 2026 be above 39.17T?: Above 39.17T — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the Total Public Debt on May 28, 2026 be above 39.22T?: Above 39.22T — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 5 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:07.751Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "63% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trufpdebt Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Total%20Public%20Debt%20on%20May%2028%2C%202026%20be%20above%2038.97T Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev