13% — Will Trump run in 2028?
Kalshi 13% · 6 contracts · $115 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-24 01:41:55 UTC

Why this matters:
Market evidence is not negligible: polymarket "Presidential Election Winner 2028: Eric Trump" 0¢; polymarket "Presidential Election Winner 2028: Donald Trump Jr." 1¢; polymarket "Presidential Election Winner 2028: Donald Trump" 1¢. Resolution windows can differ across venues, so treat the odds as contract-specific rather than one combined probability.

Key factors:
- 20% probability of a 2028 run
- 7% chance of a Trump family nomination
- fringe betting on future ticket pairings
- low political market engagement

Contracts:
- Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Donald J. Trump Jr. — 23¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 87%)
- Will a Trump family member the 2028 Republican presidential nominee?: Before 2028 — 6¢ Kalshi $15 (weight 13%)
- Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before Nov 7, 2028?: Before Election Day — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Donald J. Trump — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Donald Trump Jr. and Marco Rubio be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket?: Donald Trump Jr. and Marco Rubio — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2028?: Before 2028 — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-24T01:20:50.717Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trump-2028
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Trump%20run%20in%202028%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev