11% — Will Trump run in 2028?
Kalshi 12% · Polymarket 3% · 8 contracts · $975 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 04:51:25 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 9pp (Kalshi higher)

Why this matters:
There is currently no direct prediction market contract for a Donald Trump 2028 presidential candidacy. Current market focus for the 2028 election cycle is centered on Democratic primary contenders, where Gavin Newsom is currently seen as the most likely candidate to declare first, with a 29% market-implied probability.

Key factors:
- Gavin Newsom 29% declaration probability
- Kamala Harris 21% declaration probability
- Focus on 2028 primary declaration timelines
- Absence of direct Trump 2028 contract

Contracts:
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Donald Trump Jr. — 3¢ Polymarket $969 (weight 99%)
- Will a Trump family member the 2028 Republican presidential nominee?: Before 2028 — 7¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 1%)
- Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before Nov 7, 2028?: Before Election Day — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Donald J. Trump Jr. — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will JD Vance and Donald Trump be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket?: JD Vance and Donald Trump — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Donald J. Trump — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Donald Trump Jr. and Marco Rubio be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket?: Donald Trump Jr. and Marco Rubio — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2028?: Before 2028 — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T04:20:10.519Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "11% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trump-2028
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Trump%20run%20in%202028%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev