32% — Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...
Kalshi 32% · 4 contracts · $6K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-27 21:21:09 UTC

Why this matters:
This contract resolves to 35% based on whether Donald Trump publicly announces an end to U.S. military operations against Iran by a specified date. The probability reflects a roughly one-in-three chance of such an announcement occurring. Two main drivers shape this level: ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Trump's historical negotiating style, which has included both military escalation and sudden diplomatic reversals. The contract will be resolved when the deadline passes or Trump makes a formal statement ending military operations. Markets assign this moderate probability, suggesting traders see material but uncertain odds—neither treating it as highly likely nor dismissive. The Kalshi-Polymarket gap of 9 percentage points indicates some disagreement about the likelihood, possibly reflecting different assessments of current Iran-U.S. relations or Trump's policy trajectory.

Key factors:
- Current status of active U.S. military operations against Iranian targets or Iranian proxies as of June 2026
- Public statements and policy declarations by Trump administration officials regarding Iran military engagement in preceding weeks
- Historical pattern of Trump's approach to Iran negotiations versus military action during his political career
- Occurrence of any major escalatory or de-escalatory events in U.S.-Iran relations before the resolution deadline
- Specific contractual deadline date and whether it allows sufficient time for policy announcements to occur

Contracts:
- Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?: Before his term ends — 18¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 56%)
- Will the 25th Amendment be used during Trump's Presidency?: Before 2029 — 31¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 44%)
- What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term?: 6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals — 73¢ Kalshi $13 (weight 0%)
- What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term?: Not nine justices — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-07-27T21:20:50.407Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "32% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trump-announces-military-operations-against-iran
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Trump%20announces%20end%20of%20military%20operations%20against%20Iran%20by%20...
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev