36% — Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...
Kalshi 40% · Polymarket 33% · 13 contracts · $125K volume · high confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 04:35:03 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 7pp (Kalshi higher)

Contracts:
- US military action against Cuba by...?: December 31 — 39¢ Polymarket $63K (weight 50%)
- Israel military action against Yemen by...?: June 30 — 25¢ Polymarket $48K (weight 39%)
- Who will attend the NATO Summit?: Donald Trump — 82¢ Polymarket $9K (weight 7%)
- Will Donald J. Trump attend The 2026 FIFA World Cup Final?: Yes — 81¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 2%)
- Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?: Before his term ends — 18¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 1%)
- Israel military action against Damascus by...?: June 30 — 19¢ Polymarket $869 (weight 1%)
- Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? — 7¢ Polymarket $157 (weight 0%)
- Will the 25th Amendment be used during Trump's Presidency?: Before 2029 — 27¢ Kalshi $95 (weight 0%)
- ... and 5 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T04:20:12.144Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "36% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trump-announces-military-operations-against-iran
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Trump%20announces%20end%20of%20military%20operations%20against%20Iran%20by%20...
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev