93% — Trump declassifies new UFO files by...
Leader: December 31 at 93% · Polymarket 93% · 2 contracts · $35K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:23:05 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets are currently pricing a 77% probability that Trump will declassify new UFO files by December 31, 2026, based primarily on Polymarket pricing. This reflects expectations that any such disclosure would occur within the next seven months. The probability is driven by Trump's stated interest in UFO transparency during his political career and recent executive actions on declassification, though no specific executive orders on UFO files have been announced in 2026 yet. The main countervailing factor is that UFO-related releases often involve inter-agency coordination and national security reviews that can extend timelines. The resolution hinges on whether Trump issues an explicit declassification directive targeting UFO materials, with the December 31 deadline creating a defined window for markets to settle. Related Kalshi contracts suggest elevated trading activity around Trump's executive actions generally (81% on May tariffs), indicating active monitoring of his recent policy moves.

Key factors:
- Trump has no publicly announced executive order specifically directing UFO file declassification as of May 2026
- Related markets show 84% probability for UFO release 'before 2027,' providing a broader timeframe context
- Declassification actions require coordination across multiple agencies (DoD, CIA, NSA), which historically delays timeline expectations
- The December 31 deadline represents approximately 244 days from market assessment date, a finite window for executive action
- Historical precedent shows Trump issued executive orders on declassification during his first term, establishing baseline likelihood for similar action

Contracts:
- Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?: December 31 — 93¢ Polymarket $5K (weight 13%)
- Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?: May 31 — 78¢ Polymarket $31K (weight 87%)

Cite as: "93% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trump-declassifies-new-ufo-files
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Trump%20declassifies%20new%20UFO%20files%20by...
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev