6% — Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026
Polymarket 6% · 1 contracts · $11K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 09:42:43 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the market estimate that Donald Trump will face formal House impeachment charges before December 31, 2026. At 6%, traders are pricing in impeachment as unlikely but not impossible within the next six months. The current level reflects both the Republican-controlled House (which would initiate impeachment) and Trump's substantial political support within the party. Significant downward pressure would require sustained stability in Trump's political position and no major escalating scandals. Conversely, unexpected developments—whether criminal convictions, health crises, or major international incidents—could rapidly increase this probability. The outcome hinges largely on whether House Democrats gain leverage through new information or whether Trump's party remains sufficiently unified to prevent defections on such a consequential vote.

Key factors:
- Current House political composition and loyalty dynamics within the Republican caucus
- Trajectory of ongoing legal proceedings and potential conviction outcomes before end-2026
- Emergence of significant political scandals or major policy disputes between Trump and Congress
- Historical precedent: only two presidents impeached in U.S. history; none removed by Senate
- Timeline of major political events that could shift party calculus, including potential 2028 campaign dynamics

Contracts:
- Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? — 6¢ Polymarket $11K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-18T05:20:21.689Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "6% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trump-impeached
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Trump%20be%20impeached%20by%20end%20of%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev